Iran and US trade blame for attacks, threatening fragile ceasefire

JD Vance warns ‘violence will be met with violence’ while the IRGC says future responses to aggression will be ‘broader’.

Iran and the United States have traded attacks in the Gulf, raising fears that the fragile ceasefire between the two countries is unravelling.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Saturday they had hit US sites in the Gulf in retaliation for US attacks on Iranian missile, drone and radar facilities – themselves a response to what Washington said was an Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

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US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the latest US attacks, against Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar positions, were a response to “unwarranted aggression against commercial shipping by Iranian forces” that “clearly violated the ceasefire”.

Iranian state television, citing a reporter in the southern port city of Sirik, said an explosion was heard late Friday at Taheroui pier.

It quoted an informed military source as saying the blast was caused by a projectile impact in the area.

“Sirik Port is operating normally, and no damage has been reported to its equipment or facilities,” Mehr news agency reported following the explosion.

CENTCOM described the operation as “a powerful response to yesterday’s attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz“.

US President Donald Trump had earlier denounced what he described as an Iranian drone attack on the vessel, saying “obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement.”

Vice President JD Vance issued a direct warning, posting on X that “violence will be met with violence” if Iran carries out any further attacks.

Minutes later, on Saturday morning Iran time, state television reported that the IRGC said they had hit US sites in the Gulf region in retaliation for the US attacks.

“If the aggression is repeated, our response will be broader than this,” the IRGC said, according to a post on the state TV Telegram channel.

A fragile ceasefire

The exchange of fire has raised questions over whether a June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the US and Iran will hold.

Each side has accused the other of violating the deal, which included a ceasefire.

The memorandum was not final but was rather framed as a precursor to further negotiations, including over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global trade.

Iran had warned vessels not to enter or leave the Gulf through the strait without permission, but ships have continued to move, some using a route not authorised by Tehran.

Despite the latest flare-up, oil prices have fallen sharply on hopes that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would continue to recover.

But Thursday’s attack on a Singapore-registered commercial vessel, the Ever Lovely, has reignited tensions between the US and Iran.

Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon – in violation of the memorandum’s terms – has also thrown the deal into jeopardy.

However, on Friday, after US-brokered talks, Israel and Lebanon signed a “framework agreement” that Washington says aims to end the “cycle of endless conflict”.

Nuclear safeguards

The United Nations nuclear watchdog’s chief has warned that any final US-Iran settlement would need strong safeguards to ensure Tehran does not build a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s nuclear programme remains a central sticking point, with Tehran and Washington giving conflicting accounts of whether inspectors will regain access to the country’s facilities.

“The government of Iran has declared quite clearly that this is not their intention,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said Friday of developing nuclear weapons.

“But of course, intentions are not enough. We have to have a very strong verification system in place… as soon as is practicable.”

The interim agreement says Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium – estimated pre-war at 440kg (970lb), enriched to 60 percent – should be “downblended” under IAEA supervision.