11 months ago
22
In the feverish rhetoric of this new age of chaos, Donald Trump has upped the temperature dangerously close to delirium with a threat to kill the supreme leader of Iran – not yet, but maybe – and Trump knows where he’s hiding.
Iran has, inevitably, hit back with a counter threat that if the US joins Israel in its attacks, then there will be all out war in the Middle East.
Trump’s language has meandered from peace maker to cowboy growl in his own reality TV show as Israel has taken the best window of opportunity it has ever had to launch its long-planned campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and, it hopes, also topple the regime of the Islamic Republic.
From the US military and strategic perspective he may have been advised by hawks in the Pentagon, are there are plenty among his republican critics who agree – that now is the best time to join in hitting Iran.
His efforts to try to negotiate a deal with Iran to end its nuclear programme were derided by his former national security adviser John Bolton.
“It wasn’t that we didn’t give diplomacy as a chance. Diplomacy had no chance, given Iran’s objectives,” said Bolton.
Bolton, now a vocal critic of Trump, has advocated for regime change in Iran for years. But there are MAGA supporters inside Trump’s tightest circle who are genuinely opposed to using the US military to interfere in foreign nations.
Attempts at regime change and democracy building by force in Iraq and Afghanistan were red letter failures for many of Trump’s supporters. They see no upside in another military adventure in the Middle East.
“The deliberate targeting of Iran's nuclear facilities not only constitutes a grave violation of international law and the UN Charter but also risks exposing all people in our neighbourhood to a possible hazardous leak. This is not an act of war against our country, it is war against humanity," said Ali Bahreini, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.
He criticised the failure of states to condemn Israel's attacks. “We are hearing almost nothing from those self-proclaimed champions of human rights," he said.
That’s not surprising. No one wants to see Iran get hold of nuclear weapons and very few human rights advocates would rue the fall of a regime that hangs its critics with cranes.
Trump has been a long advocate of peace. He loves a macho leader, like Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Kim Jong Un – but he’s always shown what appears to be genuine revulsion at war.
He famously refused to attack Iran during his last presidency when its forces downed an American drone, insisting that killing people over the incident was disproportionate.
Trump may be excited by the idea that Iran doesn’t have the capacity to make good on its threats to spread war across the Middle East. That has encouraged him to call for “TOTAL SURRENDER” – a demand that even Netanyahu hasn’t made.
On top of that there’s the ad hominem kill threat against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
“We know exactly where the so-called 'supreme leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” he said.
Residents of Iran’s capital Tehran have been told to flee – that’s 12 million people and Israel has threatened to attack its enemies anywhere, and everywhere.
The sabre-rattling is more confident with every air strike that kills an Iranian commander, wipes out a nuclear facility, blows up an air defence operation and takes out missile silos.
The US has the bunker buster bombs which are, perhaps, necessary to hit the nuclear facilities buried half a mile under ground at Natanz.
Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has been crippled in Lebanon and Syria. It poses a threat in Iran and so do the Houthis of Yemen. But they would be no match for the conventional firepower of the US airforce and navy.
Trump may be calculating that joining Israel’s operations would annihilate Iran’s capacity to counter attack effectively. He could, in theory, stop Iran from setting the Middle East aflame.
But Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and its powerful Quds Force are experts at insurgency.
They funded and led operations that helped drive the US out of Iraq. They have agents and sleeper cells across the Middle East. They were pioneers of the shaped charge IEDs that can tear the heaviest armour into backing foil.
And they are not afraid to die for their cause.
Iran’s leaders call America the Great Satan and refer to Israel as Little Satan.
They may be relishing the thought of a final showdown, and Trump may be about to deliver it.
