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United States President Donald Trump has publicly mused about the leadership he would like to see in Iran following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
During an Oval Office appearance on Tuesday with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, one reporter asked Trump what plans he had made for a “worst-case scenario” in Iran, as the US and Israel continue to wage war on the country.
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Trump replied that he had few worries from a military standpoint, but he expressed concern that Khamenei could be succeeded by another leader unfriendly to US priorities.
“I guess the worst case would be we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don’t want that to happen,” Trump said.
“It would probably be the worst. You go through this and then, in five years, you realise you put somebody in who is no better.”
Shifting rationales
The US and Israel launched their military offensive on February 28, and Iran has responded with a barrage of attacks primarily aimed at Israel and US bases across the Middle East.
The death toll in Iran has reached at least 787 people. Injuries and deaths have also been reported across the region. At least six US service members have been killed in the fighting.
The Trump administration has offered a range of rationales to justify the attack, though experts have condemned the offensive as a violation of international law.
One of the rationales offered by Trump himself was the removal of Khamenei’s government.
In a prerecorded statement published over the weekend, Trump said the US military action was designed for “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”.
He added that he sought to “prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America” and issued a call for Iranian opposition members to “take over your government”.
Other administration officials, however, attempted to downplay regime change as a motive for the ongoing attacks, including Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth.
“This is not a so-called regime change war,” Hegseth told reporters on Monday. “But the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.”
Venezuela a model for Iran?
Still, in Tuesday’s remarks, Trump suggested a vision for Iran’s future that reflects the outcome of his recent military intervention in Venezuela.
On January 3, Trump authorised a military attack on the South American country that culminated with the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The couple is currently in New York, where they await trial on charges related to drug trafficking.
Following Maduro’s removal, his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim leader, with the Trump administration’s support.
Ever since, Rodriguez’s government has largely acceded to US demands, including by surrendering millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil.
Trump, meanwhile, has warned that Rodriguez could “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro”, if she “doesn’t do what’s right”.
But on Tuesday, Trump once again indicated that the Rodriguez government has been cooperative, and he was satisfied with the results of January’s attack in Venezuela. He hinted it could be a model for Iran’s future, as well.
“Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack, and we kept government totally intact. And we have Delcy, who’s been very good. We have the whole chain of command,” Trump said.
He also underscored the economic benefits he hopes to extract, as the US continues to exercise control of Venezuela’s oil. He called the process “seamless”.
“The relationship’s been great. We’ve taken out a hundred million barrels of oil already. And a big part of that goes to them, and a big part goes to us,” Trump said.
“It’s been great. We paid for the war many times over, and we’re going to be running the oil. And Venezuela’s going to make more money than they ever made.”
Barriers to Trump’s vision
But Trump nevertheless signalled that there were hurdles to implementing a Venezuela-style regime change in Iran.
The US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Trump indicated, had killed many of the alternative leaders he had hoped to see in power.
“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump said. “We had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now, we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports.”
He added that his options for replacing Khamenei were running low. “Pretty soon, we’re not going to know anybody.”
Still, Trump has repeatedly expressed ambivalence about the leadership prospects of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, who was exiled during the 1979 revolution.
Pahlavi, 65, has pitched himself as a candidate to lead Iran on an interim basis, in a bid to restore democracy.
But critics have argued that Pahlavi is a divisive figure. His father oversaw human rights abuses during his time as monarch, and Pahlavi himself has been accused of attacking fellow dissidents and failing to build a coalition.
When asked if Pahlavi could be an alternate leadership candidate, Trump demurred.
“I guess he is. Some people like him,” Trump said, before adding, “We haven’t been thinking too much about that. It would seem to me that somebody from within, maybe, would be more appropriate.”
Trump then explained he would prefer a moderate, “somebody that’s there, that’s currently popular, if there is such a person”. Still, he did offer light praise for Pahlavi, repeating a comment he had previously made about the shah’s son.
“He looks like a very nice person,” Trump said of Pahlavi.
