Will Ekitike be a Liverpool hit or flop? Why he's so hard to scout

Hugo Ekitike is going to beryllium a superstar. Hugo Ekitike is going to beryllium a bust.

Depending connected however hard I squint, I tin beauteous easy person myself that either of those things is true. The 23-year-old Frenchman is simply a transfer-scouting Rorschach test: How you presumption him says everything astir however you presumption the sport.

More than immoderate subordinate I tin remember, Ekitike someway some reaffirms and rejects accepted contented and scouting biases. He's a carnal marvel with glaring carnal weaknesses. He's an analytics darling with monolithic analytical reddish flags. He's a accumulation instrumentality without a way grounds of goals and assists. He's a young imaginable without capable experience. He has already done it successful a apical league; it conscionable wasn't the right apical league.

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After a head-fake toward joining Newcastle, Ekitike is bound for Liverpool. While the defending Premier League champs navigate the transportation marketplace amended than everyone, they're connected the verge of signing a subordinate who looks similar a aboriginal world-class guardant and a aboriginal what-were-they-thinking introduction connected a bottom-10 database -- each astatine the aforesaid time.

Hugo Ekitike is everything that dumb clubs get incorrect astir transfers and everything that astute clubs get right.

Why he's going to fail

In the NBA, they're obsessed with unicorns to the constituent wherever it seems similar having a horn sticking retired of the halfway of your forehead is simply a prerequisite entering the draft.

The word was first used successful 2016 by superstar Kevin Durant to picture New York Knicks draught prime Kristaps Porzingis. The 7-foot-3 Latvian imaginable was capable to support the handbasket and sprout 3s. There hadn't truly been a subordinate similar this successful NBA history. You mucked astir successful the overgarment oregon you changeable 3s -- but you ne'er did both.

Nearly a decennary later, each NBA squad has astatine slightest 1 subordinate who tin defender the rim and people from range, portion the champion teams person aggregate players who tin bash a spot of everything: gangly 6-foot-8 types who tin dribble, create, shoot, defend, jump, parkland your car, merchantability popcorn, negociate a favorable lease and soothe a crying child.

Soccer hasn't entered its "unicorn" epoch yet -- and whitethorn we each delight admit the irony earlier we get successful excessively heavy -- but if we're going to get there, we'll beryllium led into the caller property by a 6-foot-3 French dude with the ft skills of Rafael Leão and the velocity of Anthony Gordon. You don't request to recognize thing astir shot to recognize that there's thing antithetic astir this guy:

And, well, of people scouts are going to emotion this guy; this is the feline scouts person always loved. He looks bully successful jeans. He's truthful bully connected the ball. He's mode faster than anyone his size has immoderate close to be. And possibly astir importantly, he's projectable. Ekitike intelligibly isn't the finished project, and there's thing that coaches emotion much than being capable to "coach a feline up." Imagine if you could adhd a small wound to this guy's game? Sure, he's lone 170 pounds soaking wet, but conscionable hold until your spot and conditioning unit gets a clasp of him.

These, of course, are the questions that person historically led scouts and coaches astray. Instead of focusing on, you know, players who are bully astatine the fundamentals of playing shot and helping their teams win, teams get seduced by what diversion players mightiness 1 time bash if they someway onshore connected their optimal improvement path. Using information to measure players was expected to assistance teams debar these kinds of mistakes and make a overmuch much broad appraisal of a player's illustration than the benignant of biased, aesthetic-based judgments we each succumb to from simply watching tape.

Plus, there's ever little time for these players to make than we think. Soccer players' highest years hap overmuch earlier -- betwixt 24 and 28, much precisely -- than anyone would similar to admit, and the players who get by connected carnal skills thin to diminution overmuch much rapidly than their more-skilled peers.

Ektike is young by astir immoderate explanation -- helium conscionable turned 23 past period -- but he's lone a twelvemonth distant from his soccer-playing prime. There's not a ton of clip near for him to get caller skills oregon strength. His caller squad volition request him to commencement contributing astir close away, and portion helium did conscionable lend for Eintracht Frankfurt this past season, it was inactive lone his archetypal existent play contributing astatine a nonrecreational level.

In 2024-25, Ekitike scored 14 non-penalty goals and added 8 assists successful 2,563 league minutes -- bully capable for 0.77 goals+assists per 90. Among players who featured successful astatine slightest 2,000 Premier League minutes past season, lone his aboriginal teammate Mohamed Salah and Newcastle's Alexander Isak were much productive. But players tin person vocation years astatine immoderate moment. So if you're signing Ekitike, you mightiness beryllium signing him connected the backmost of an outlier season, but you won't cognize due to the fact that helium has played lone 1 existent season.

Now, Ekitike had played astir 3,000 minutes anterior to this past play -- archetypal with Reims and past Paris Saint-Germain successful Ligue 1, and past successful 2023-24 with Frankfurt -- and his accumulation was astir precisely the aforesaid crossed that agelong arsenic it was successful 2024-25. But astir fractional of those 63 appearances earlier past play came arsenic a sub, and substitute attackers people and assistance goals astatine overmuch higher rates than starters do.

Beyond each of this, the biggest reddish emblem is the situation successful which helium contributed to those 22 goals. The Bundesliga is conscionable a antithetic league than the Premier League, oregon immoderate of the different Big Five leagues. Here's however each 5 comparison by the fig of possessions each squad averages per crippled and the fig of fouls:

The shot is turned implicit mode much often successful the Bundesliga, truthful determination are mode much transitional moments and truthful mode much abstraction for attackers to tally into. And portion fouls aren't a cleanable proxy for the physicality of the league, determination conscionable is overmuch little body-to-body interaction successful Germany due to the fact that of however overmuch much abstraction determination is connected the field.

Ekitike's flimsy framework seldom got tested past season. For this reason, connected average, Bundesliga attackers tend to produce astatine a importantly little level erstwhile they determination to the Premier League. (Timo Werner, anyone?)

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But it's not conscionable that Ekitike is coming from the Bundesliga; it's that he's coming from Frankfurt successful particular. In the 5 years from 2019 done 2024 -- not counting Omar Marmoush's determination to Manchester City halfway done past play -- the nine transferred retired the pursuing attackers:

• Randal Kolo Muani: 24 years old, €95 cardinal to PSG
• Luka Jovic: 21, €61m to Real Madrid
• Sébastien Haller: 25, €50m to West Ham
• Jesper Lindstrom: 23, €30m to Napoli
• André Silva: 25, €23m to RB Leipzig

That's much than €250 cardinal from 5 attackers who combined to nutrient 1 -- one! -- double-digit extremity play for their caller clubs. And of the five, 3 spent astatine slightest portion of past play connected loan, portion the different 2 person agelong since departed the clubs that acquired them from Frankfurt.

Do you privation to stake connected the sixth clip being the charm?

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Why he's going to flourish

Even arsenic expected goals person infected the net and adjacent begun to get the occasional not-totally-dismissive notation connected mainstream tv broadcasts, we're inactive not adjacent to reaching a constituent wherever the conception is understood properly, fto unsocial employed successful immoderate strategical fashion.

Expected goals remains the astir almighty predictive metric that we have, some astatine a team and individual level. It predicts aboriginal goals and wins amended than immoderate different azygous statistic, including past goals and past wins. Depending connected your viewpoint, this either created caller cognition oregon confirmed antecedently existing cognition of the sport: players people tons of goals due to the fact that of the measurement and quantity of the chances they get, not due to the fact that of however bully they are astatine converting their chances implicit the agelong haul.

The Stats Perform database has 512 goals for Lionel Messi for Barcelona, from 409.36 expected goals. The elemental mode to deliberation astir this is that lone 20% of Messi's extremity scoring could beryllium explained by his finishing accomplishment -- and he's the top converter of shots to ever live. (Everyone other is going to beryllium mode beneath that 20% rate.)

The remaining 80% of his extremity scoring was predicted by an algorithm that knew the location, assemblage part, walk benignant and a fistful of different changeable characteristics, but had nary hint wherever the changeable ended up connected the extremity framework oregon who was adjacent attempting the shot. For Cristiano Ronaldo astatine Real Madrid, the transportation was adjacent tighter: 394 goals from 343.82 xG.

Were you going to employment this accusation to summation an vantage connected your competitors, you would beryllium quicker to chopped ties with players who had blistery finishing seasons since you could beryllium assured their extremity scoring would regress, and their transportation values would ne'er beryllium higher. Equally, you would effort to get players who had generated tons of expected goals, but failed to crook them into the requisite fig of existent goals since they were apt to beryllium undervalued.

Well, truthful acold this summer, Manchester United person spent implicit €150 cardinal connected fees to get Matheus Cunha from Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bryan Mbeumo from Brentford. Mbeumo scored 7.7 goals much than expected this past season, portion Cunha was 6.4 supra his expected number. These were the first- and second-biggest gaps successful the league. So if you were trying to foretell which 2 Premier League players would acquisition the biggest drop-off successful goals this season, you would enactment Mbeumo and Cunha close astatine the apical of the database -- and United person built their summer, and their short-term success, astir acquiring some of them.

At the different extremity of the spectrum, Ekitike scored 14 non-penalty goals from 19.3 expected goals -- the biggest underperformance of immoderate subordinate crossed Europe's Big Five leagues:

And so, let's flip this around: If you were trying to foretell what subordinate successful Europe was going to acquisition the biggest increase successful goal-scoring this season, Ektike would beryllium astatine the apical of the list. Only Salah and Isak were much productive per-minute than Ekitike this play -- and he, really, was adjacent amended than that.

If we adhd his expected goals and expected goals assisted numbers together, Ekitike averaged 0.91 xG+xAG per 90 past season. The lone players who played astatine slightest 2,000 minutes and were amended crossed Europe's apical 5 leagues: PSG's Ousmane Dembélé, PSG's Bradley Barcola, and Barcelona's Raphinha. The 2 players close down Ekitike: Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski and Salah.

But adjacent that mightiness beryllium underselling Ekitike's potential. Scoring goals and creating goals are the superior drivers of attacking value, but with halfway forwards, teams volition often disregard the trade-offs that travel with a batch of these players. While Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland are 2 of the champion players successful the world, I bash deliberation their limitations -- Mbappe retired of possession, Haaland successful possession -- marque them somewhat little invaluable players than their top-line numbers suggest. And I deliberation we've seen this successful however some of their teams, connected the whole, person been worse since they arrived astatine their caller clubs contempt each of them producing out-of-this-world idiosyncratic numbers.

With Ekitike, though, there's crushed to judge these trade-offs mightiness not exist. He's an progressive presser for his position, he's a fantastic passing outlet, he's rather unafraid successful possession, he's a high-touch player, and he's a world-class dribbler for his position. Nothing astir the mode helium plays needs to beryllium accounted for oregon supported by idiosyncratic other successful the lineup.

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Hugo Ekitike's champion goals and assistance for Frankfurt

As his determination to Liverpool looks imminent ESPN instrumentality a look backmost astatine immoderate of Hugo Ekitike's goals and assists from past season.

Michael Imburgio's DAVIES model attempts to enactment a combined worth connected each of this stuff. And per his model, Ekitike produced 8.23 goals of worth much than the mean subordinate astatine his position. The information goes backmost to the 2017-18 season, and it's the highest people for a Bundesliga subordinate aged 22 oregon under. The lone different players to interruption 7.0: Haaland (7.96) successful his past play with Borussia Dortmund earlier joining Manchester City and Jude Bellingham (7.48) successful his past play with Borussia Dortmund earlier joining Real Madrid.

Both of those players, Haaland and Bellingham, won subordinate of the twelvemonth successful their caller respective leagues and won the Champions League successful Year One with their caller respective teams.

If you knew you were getting the adjacent Haaland oregon Bellingham, the interest required to get that subordinate would beryllium determination successful the €150 cardinal range. And if you thought you were taking a flier connected Frankfurt's adjacent imaginable flop, you'd astir apt lone beryllium consenting to crockery retired thing similar €30 cardinal for the risk.

Given Ektike's imaginable futures, it's fitting that Liverpool are expected to wage astir €80 million. Or, framed different way, determination close successful the mediate of some extremes.