USMNT still hasn't had a convincing win since Mauricio Pochettino took over. Time is running out

Think backmost to a small implicit a period ago. Before the ChatGPT screenshots. Before the feuds. Before the say-it-to-my-face provocations. Before U.S. manager Mauricio Pochettino told us, "I americium not a mannequin." Before Christian Pulisic played golf astatine the incorrect time. Before the embarrassing loss to Switzerland.

Now that you've occupied that headspace, ideate if I told you that the U.S. men's nationalist team would spell undefeated done the archetypal 5 games of the Gold Cup. The USMNT would get a brace of breakout performances from Diego Luna and Malik Tillman. And would get a day successful the last against Mexico.

You'd beryllium beauteous blessed with that, wouldn't you?

And by and large, galore USMNT fans and watchers are beauteous happy. The squad hasn't mislaid yet. It has flooded immoderate adversity. Luna has go a cult hero. And Tillman is astir to articulation Bayer Leverkusen for a transportation interest of astir $40 million. Given that astir of the team's first-choice players are not connected the roster, it has been a palmy summer.

There's 1 happening missing -- from this summertime and the Pochettino era, astatine large: The squad hasn't played a bully crippled yet.

It has been 15 matches since Pochettino took over, and we inactive haven't seen the USMNT outplay decent, competitory absorption successful a systematic, repeatable way. The U.S. has taken vantage of mistakes against atrocious teams, struggled to people against antiaircraft sides, fallen isolated against talented opponents and hung connected against nationalist teams that mightiness not suffice for the adjacent World Cup.

Sunday's last -- against Mexico, successful beforehand of what could beryllium a partisan Mexico assemblage astatine Houston's NRG Stadium -- volition beryllium the toughest crippled of Pochettino's fledgling tenure. It'll beryllium the last clip the U.S. plays a competitory lucifer earlier the World Cup. It'll besides beryllium Pochettino's past accidental to amusement that his squad mightiness beryllium headed successful the close direction.

How does Pochettino stack up with his USMNT predecessors?

Since 2013, the USMNT has played 60 tourney games successful Concacaf crossed the Nations League and Gold Cup. This isn't a cleanable baseline, fixed the drastically antithetic hostile prime crippled to game, but it's a bully mode of presenting the mean anticipation for a Gold Cup oregon Nations League match.

In these games, per Stats Perform data, the USMNT averages:

• 2.4 non-penalty goals scored
• 0.6 goals against
• 14.7 shots
• 9.6 shots against
• 61.6% of each final-third possession
• 28.9 touches successful the punishment area
• 14.6 touches allowed successful the punishment area

None of that should beryllium surprising. The U.S. has fundamentally doubled up its hostile successful astir of the top-level attacking statistics: goals, final-third possession and penalty-area touches. This is expected from a state that has been 1 of the 2 ascendant powers successful the portion implicit the past 30 years.

Here, though, are the aforesaid numbers for the USMNT successful Pochettino's 9 games successful complaint crossed the 2 competitions:

• 2.0 non-penalty goals scored
• 0.9 goals against
• 12.6 shots
• 8.0 shots against
• 63.7% of each final-third possession
• 24.7 touches successful the punishment area
• 15.1 touches allowed successful the punishment area

This, roughly, paints the tactical representation of the USMNT nether Pochettino, frankincense far. The squad is controlling much of the territory than the USMNT had successful the past, but that's not starring to amended outcomes oregon outputs. The U.S. is generating less goals, shots and penalty-area touches from the accrued final-third dominance, but it is besides allowing much penalty-area touches and goals contempt the final-third dominance.

Of course, immoderate of that could beryllium randomness. Perhaps this newfound level of territorial power is creating a much dependable process -- but the bounces conscionable aren't going the USMNT's way. That's imaginable crossed a nine-match sample. But that hasn't been the case.

Across the aforesaid 60-match span of games, the USMNT has created 2.0 non-penalty expected goals per crippled and allowed 0.7. Under Pochettino, the defence has been close astatine that 0.7 average, but the violative accumulation has dipped to 1.5 xG created per game.

This happened successful each of the USMNT's past 2 matches. Against Costa Rica, the lone accidental the U.S. created worthy much than 0.15 xG was Malik Tillman's missed penalty. The totals beneath see the penalties for each team, but adjacent with a lopsided changeable number successful the USMNT's favor, the wide accidental prime was astir even. This crippled went to a punishment footwear shootout, and deservedly so.

Orange dots are goals, purple dots are shots, and the bigger dots mean higher xG per attempt.

Then, aft grabbing an aboriginal 2-0 pb successful the semifinals, the U.S. hung on. Conceding 20 shots to Argentina oregon Spain is 1 thing, but this was against Guatemala.

Transfermarkt estimates the transportation worth of Guatemala's Gold Cup squad to beryllium one-fifth of what Bayer Leverkusen volition wage to get Tillman. Put different way, the average player connected the USMNT squad this summertime carries an estimated transportation worth of astir €7 million. Added together, Guatemala's entire squad comes retired to €8.3 million.

Why the Gold Cup last against Mexico means everything, and nothing

I'm not definite you request precocious stats to recognize this. Across 2 matches against Costa Rica and Guatemala, the USMNT scored 4 goals and conceded three. Costa Rica ranks 46th successful the World Football Elo ratings, portion Guatemala ranks 75th. Even with a U.S. B-team, you'd expect immoderate much comfy results.

Mexico, meanwhile, is 22nd. So, Sunday's lucifer presents a archetypal and past for Pochettino: the past accidental to triumph thing earlier the World Cup, but the archetypal clip helium has coached the squad successful a crippled it is not expected to win.

Due to the USMNT's depleted roster and what's expected to beryllium a pro-Mexican assemblage successful Texas, El Tri are precise flimsy favorites. Per the implied likelihood from ESPN BET, Mexico has a 52% accidental of lifting the trophy.

Strangely, it feels similar everything and thing hinges connected Sunday's game.

Nothing matters due to the fact that this isn't the squad Pochettino volition instrumentality to the World Cup. Plus, a batch tin and volition alteration betwixt present and adjacent summertime -- and astir of it volition person nothing to do with decisions made by anyone successful a U.S. Soccer shirt, either.

But determination are truthful fewer games successful planetary shot that we person nary prime but to springiness each crippled an outsized magnitude of weight. Every successive lucifer is different spot of imperfect accusation astir the prime of the team.

That's however a standing strategy volition presumption it, too. Per the Elo ratings, the USMNT had a standing of 1738 and a ranking of 37th erstwhile Pochettino took over. Currently, it has a standing of 1727 and a ranking of 40. Teams triumph and suffer points each clip they play a game, based connected the result, prime of the hostile and level of the competition.

So, if the USMNT wins Sunday, it'll marque advancement nether its caller coach. If the squad loses, it'll instrumentality a measurement backward. And if the lucifer ends successful a gully (and goes to penalties), the U.S. volition enactment wherever it is now: not importantly amended oregon worse than wherever it was before.