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The recent military moves taken by Yemens Houthis resulted in stunning victories and significant strategic gains, virtually unopposed. By taking the Red Sea port of Mocha (Al-Makha), occupying Perim Island in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and seizing portions of the Red Sea coast, the Iranian proxy group now threatens a key commercial waterway. Reports indicate that, unsurprisingly – or at least it should not be a surprise – Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisors were present, guiding the tactics of Houthi forces. We missed all of this.
For decades, the United States has had an active, robust CIA, diplomatic, and military presence in the Persian Gulf. Understanding, managing, and balancing the nuanced and sometimes fractious relationships among our Gulf allies has always been a complicated task, but one critical to the national security of both the United States and our Gulf allies. We have all made it work, together.Until now. Something has gone terribly wrong.
As a former CIA operations officer and Chief of Station in the Gulf, I know that failing to anticipate an Iranian-Houthi move of this magnitude is not a tactical error or simply failing to “connect the dots.” Regional actors have their own specific interests and goals in Yemen. Each has taken its turn in the barrel militarily, seemingly largely uncoordinated and sometimes at odds with one another, to discourage or defeat the Houthis. None has succeeded.
What is lacking is leadership, coordination, and overall command and control among the key players: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. And in the latter’s case, lack of focus.
The current regional conflict seems to have opened rifts in the alliances all of us who served in the Gulf and greater Middle East strove so painstakingly to build and nurture. This is not necessarily through a simple lack of presence or communication; the Commander of CENTCOM was just recently there for consultations, and I have no doubt U.S. military personnel on the ground are in constant and very close contact with their Gulf counterparts. And from my own time there, I am certain U.S. diplomatic and intelligence personnel are equally engaged. This is what we do, and we all do it well.
So how did we miss the Houthi move?Let’s be clear. This stuff is hard. Anticipating the plans and intentions of an adversary is one of the most important things the intelligence community, and specifically the CIA, does. And the U.S. military has no peer in its planning, logistics, or execution capabilities.
But it is really difficult to anticipate and address the actions of an adversary that relies heavily on asymmetrical warfare.
Particularly when you are dealing with not one but two denied area foes–the U.S. does not have an operational Embassy in either Iran or Yemen. But it can be done; I’ve done it. It just takes focus and, yes, imagination.
But it is important to remember that the intelligence, military, and Diplomatic communities do not operate in a vacuum. Each reports to and receives direction from the White House and DoD. Based on my understanding of how these operate and interact, I can only surmise that the confusion we have seen is emanating from the very top.
Or perhaps an inability, or unwillingness, to manage yet another military crisis.
The U.S.’s lurch into war alongside Israel, one with no apparent end-game, seemingly caught the Gulf Monarchies by surprise. They have suffered the consequences, both militarily and economically. Perhaps ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ - the U.S.’s current intense financial offensive against Iran - will finally bring the Iranian regime to the table to negotiate in good faith. But that remains to be seen. And the Iranians continue to surprise us.
I’ll leave it to others more intimately versed in things Yemeni to analyze the Houthi tactics and strategic goals.
But it should be no surprise that Iran called on the Houthis to make a move at this time. Both the Iranians, and now the Houthis, have proven themselves to be master opportunists. One succeeded in opening a second front in an attempt to lessen the pressure of the U.S. naval blockade and increased sanctions, and the other saw an opportunity to expand their reach. A distracted Washington gave them the opening.
The takeaway: Overconfidence in the ultimate efficacy of Operation Economic Outcast may turn out to be misplaced. If the success of the Houthi advance does not turn out to be an isolated incident, it risks exposing a critical vulnerability in the United States’ strategy. Washington needs to keep its eye on the ball.
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