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The U.S. administration is pursuing its latest strategy: a naval blockade combined with aggressive “Outcast” sanctions, aiming to strangle the Iranian economy, force the regime to its knees, and compel it to return to negotiations on American terms.
Simultaneously, Washington is deploying additional military assets to the region. This is being framed as deterrence, but functions instead as yet another ultimatum. Any significant escalation, or even the credible threat of renewed strikes, risks triggering IRGC retaliation against critical Gulf energy infrastructure. While IRGC missile and drone inventories have been diminished, and exact IRGC munition levels remain classified, the regime likely maintains more than enough asymmetrical firepower to inflict massive damage before being neutralized.
Meanwhile, Tehran prevaricates, dodges, and plays for time. All while playing the victim, weaponizing scarcity, and brutalizing its own population. Their calculation is simple: endure enough short-term pain, while cynically passing the full brunt of it onto the Iranian people, to outlast Washington’s political tolerance.
Threats to the Strait of Hormuz and claims of control over shipping are manufactured leverage to be traded away at the right moment. They know this is opposed by virtually the entire world. By eventually “conceding” on this demand, a classic, predictable negotiating technique, they hope to secure what they truly seek: regime survival, proxy retention, and unimpeded continuation of their nuclear program.
These two paths clearly conflict with one another. Only one will prevail. But in the end, allowing an emboldened, empowered, nuclear-threshold regime to survive on their terms is utter strategic failure.
I vote for the U.S. winning. For the fall of a malignant regime that cares only about its power and wealth and holds its own people hostage.
There are no good options here. No simple fixes for where we find ourselves. Anyone with eyes can see that. So, then what?
A Radical Proposal
Forget talking to the regime. Speak to the Iranian people. Directly. Without hyperbole and with brutal candor.
Prepare them for what is coming. Not with hysterical rhetoric of annihilation, false promises of “boots on the ground,” or premature calls to take to the streets before conditions are ripe.
Tell them clearly: the target is the regime, not the nation, culture, or people of Iran.
Include regime insiders in this messaging, focusing on rank-and-file security forces, the regular military (Artesh), and yes, even IRGC leadership. They will receive the message. Some may act on it.
Be honest about what is coming: that breaking this regime will mean severe economic hardship, power disruptions, and scarcity, possibly even water shortages. Pair that honesty with a credible, binding commitment to a brighter future: a detailed blueprint for immediate relief and reconstruction, asset unfreezing, and re-integration into the global economy once the regime falls.
And lastly, assure them that Iran and Iranians will control their own fate, politically and economically.
I don’t consider myself naïve. This will be difficult. I was a specialist on Iran at the CIA for several decades. I saw both the worst and the best of Iran and Iranians. But the Iranian people (and the world) deserve more than this regime has to offer. Let’s give them (and us) that chance.
Prepare the ground, align the message, then execute.
This article was originally published on Mark Fowler's Substack.
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