The favorites to the underdogs: Ranking the Wimbledon contenders

Wimbledon's accomplishment connected the tennis calendar means precise antithetic things connected the men's and women's sides of the tour.

For the men, Wimbledon represents astir apt the astir predictable of each Slams. In the past 20 years, lone 12 players person reached the gentlemen's final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic accounted for much than fractional of those 40 spots successful the finals by themselves, and Djokovic has made the past six finals, winning 4 and losing the past 2 to Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has won the past 4 Slams connected earthy surfaces (clay oregon grass). If you conscionable privation to pencil him into the finals already, it's rational.

On the women's side, however, things are acold different. Despite a beauteous wide hierarchy forming atop the women's circuit -- Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff person won 9 of the past 10 Slams connected hard courts oregon clay -- 7 antithetic women person won the past 7 Wimbledon titles. The past 4 years astatine the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club person fixed america 13 antithetic semifinalists. Grass is the eventual motion of greatness for the men and a random-outcome generator for the women.

Therefore, the 2025 variation of this storied tourney gives america rather a fewer beauteous evident storylines. Alcaraz, Djokovic and satellite No. 1 Jannik Sinner are the runaway favorites successful the men's draw, but with some Sabalenka and Gauff facing pugnacious draws and the randomness writer provides, it's anyone's conjecture however the women's tourney volition play out. Let's locomotion done the players astir apt to marque large runs and/or specify the 2025 Wimbledon fortnight.

The favorites

Carlos Alcaraz

ESPN BET odds: +125 | Tennis Abstract odds: 54.2%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (quarterfinals)

Fresh disconnected of a triumph successful the champion Slam last of the 2020s -- his epic comeback implicit Sinner astatine the French Open -- Alcaraz cruised done his lone grass-court tuneup, beating Jiri Lehecka to triumph astatine Queen's Club a week ago.

It's unfair to comparison immoderate younger subordinate to the modular of the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal), who each won astatine slightest 20 Slams and who genuinely mightiness beryllium the 3 champion men's players of each time. But Alcaraz is making it intolerable to avoid those comparisons. Nadal won 4 Slam titles earlier his 22nd birthday, portion Djokovic and Federer had each won lone one. Alcaraz won his 5th a period aft turning 22. He doesn't boast Sinner's relentless consistency, but arsenic helium proved successful the aboriginal sets against Sinner successful Paris, his A-game and earthy upside are unmatched. His quality to accommodate and improvise successful unsocial conditions could marque him the favourite of each French Open oregon Wimbledon helium enters for the adjacent decade.

Jannik Sinner

ESPN BET odds: +190 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.6%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)

Since mid-August, Sinner is 48-4 -- 0-3 against Alcaraz and 48-1 against everyone else. He mislaid successful 3 sets to the torrid Alexander Bublik a week agone successful Halle, Germany, and is acold little proven connected writer than different surfaces, though helium reached the Wimbledon semis successful 2023. Sinner is comfortably the champion hard-court subordinate successful the satellite -- helium swept Djokovic connected the mode to the French Open last -- and helium conscionable seems to get amended successful each tourney helium enters.

Sinner's gully is simply a challenge. Even earlier perchance gathering Djokovic connected the GOAT's champion aboveground successful the semis (and, presumably, Alcaraz successful the final), helium could look 2021 semifinalist Denis Shapovalov successful the 3rd round, 2024 quarterfinalist Tommy Paul oregon 2014 semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov successful the 4th circular and 2024 semifinalist Lorenzo Musetti oregon big-serving Ben Shelton successful the quarterfinals. He won't person overmuch clip to find 5th gear, but it's hard to prime against him making a large run.

Aryna Sabalenka

ESPN BET odds: +240 | Tennis Abstract odds: 19.3%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys oregon No. 9 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)

The lone happening Sabalenka has lacked successful 2025 is simply a large last act. She has reached the finals successful 7 of 10 tournaments she has entered, but has mislaid 4 of her past six finals, including the Australian Open against Keys and the French Open against Gauff. (And contempt the other practice, her post-final concession speeches could usage a bit much work.)

She has reached the semis successful each of her past 2 Wimbledon trips, and successful a imaginable finals preview, she outlasted Elena Rybakina successful Berlin a week ago, redeeming 4 lucifer points successful the final-set tiebreaker. Like Sinner, she'll person to gain this one: Her gully could diagnostic either 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, section favourite Emma Raducanu oregon Nottingham champion McCartney Kessler successful the 3rd round, two-time semifinalist Elina Svitolina successful the fourth, Keys successful the quarterfinals and 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini successful the semis. That's a unsmooth road, but Sabalenka is the surest happening connected the women's tour.

Novak Djokovic

ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 21.1%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (quarterfinals)

In lawsuit we needed a reminder that Djokovic's standards stay ridiculously high, we got it successful Paris. In a 2025 play that has featured much nagging injuries and, astatine 1 point, his archetypal three-match losing streak successful implicit 7 years, his tally to the French Open semifinals was undeniably encouraging. He won 4 straight-set matches successful a enactment -- helium didn't person to play his mode into signifier -- and took down Alexander Zverev successful 4 sets earlier falling to Sinner successful the semis. And adjacent against Sinner, helium ne'er mislaid a acceptable by aggregate breaks (6-4, 7-5, 7-6). But helium was peculiarly affectional arsenic helium near the tribunal and acknowledged afterward that helium mightiness beryllium person than ever to retirement. We each are, I guess.

Emptying his container of tricks but not being capable to bargain adjacent a acceptable from Sinner evidently had him feeling awfully mortal. Getting smoked by Alcaraz successful past year's Wimbledon last (6-2, 6-2, 7-6) astir apt did too. But if the 24-time Slam champion is going to scope No. 25, it's astir apt going to beryllium astatine the All England Club, wherever helium has lifted the trophy 7 times and has mislaid lone doubly since 2017. His gully is tricky -- No. 11 Alex De Minaur, a 2024 quarterfinalist, could await successful the 4th round, followed by Indian Wells champion Draper (who took a acceptable from Djokovic astatine Wimbledon backmost successful 2021) successful the quarterfinals. But Djokovic wouldn't request galore breaks to marque it heavy into the 2nd week.

Coco Gauff

ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.7%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)

Still lone 21 years old, Gauff has already enactment unneurotic a Hall of Fame resume, with 2 Slam titles, a WTA Finals triumph successful 2024, 2 different 1000-level titles and a Slam doubles rubric arsenic well. And she has done this contempt struggling with her service and her forehand astatine times -- she has wide country for betterment moving forward. Yikes.

She's inactive waiting connected a Wimbledon breakthrough, though. Her 2019 upset of five-time champion Venus Williams there, arsenic a 15-year-old, was the archetypal large infinitesimal of her career, but she has won conscionable 8 full matches successful her past 4 Wimbledon trips. And similar Sabalenka, the gully did her fewer favors: Gauff could look a resurgent Sofia Kenin successful the 3rd circular -- Kenin upset her successful the archetypal circular present 2 years agone -- earlier gathering Swiatek oregon Rybakina successful the quarterfinals. But adjacent astatine this aboriginal signifier successful her career, Gauff has proved excessively overmuch not to beryllium a top-tier favorite.

Elena Rybakina

ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.4%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (fourth round)

Rybakina is the proverbial big-game player. Starting with her astonishing tally to the 2022 Wimbledon title, she's 12-8 successful her past 20 semifinals and 7-5 successful her past 12 finals. She has won 4 of her past 7 against Sabalenka, and has divided her past 8 against Swiatek. Rybakina has dealt with loads of coaching play implicit the past year, and has suffered 4 upset losses against players ranked 80th oregon worse. But her A-game remains magnificent.

Rybakina has the astir effectual service of immoderate apical subordinate -- she has won 63% of her work points this year, the astir of immoderate top-50 subordinate -- and implicit the past 3 years she's 16-2 astatine Wimbledon. She mightiness person to bushed Swiatek successful the 4th circular and Gauff successful the quarters, but the betting likelihood marque her a co-favorite with Gauff to scope the finals from the bottommost fractional of the draw.

Only request a fewer breaks

Iga Swiatek

ESPN BET odds: +850 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.4%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 2 Coco Gauff (quarterfinals)

It has been an unusual twelvemonth for the five-time Slam champion, who fell to No. 8 successful the WTA rankings earlier this week's beardown showing astatine Bad Homburg. (Swiatek volition play Jessica Pegula successful the finals, and has risen backmost to fourth.) Swiatek has already mislaid 10 matches this twelvemonth -- much than she mislaid successful each of 2024 -- and failed to triumph the French Open for the archetypal clip since 2021. Her tally astatine Bad Homburg was encouraging, but Wimbledon is the lone Slam successful which she has ne'er reached astatine slightest the semis. With Rybakina and Gauff lasting successful her way, it volition beryllium a astonishment if her archetypal semi comes this year.

Jack Draper

ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.9%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 6 Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals)

On the 1 hand, the 23-year-old has enjoyed a breakthrough season, gathering disconnected of his 2024 US Open semifinal tally by storming to the Indian Wells title, reaching 2 different finals and surging to No. 4 successful the world.

On the different hand, he's 2-3 each clip astatine Wimbledon, his location Slam, and lone 20-14 connected grass. Draper did bushed Alcaraz astatine Queen's Club past year, and helium made a coagulated semifinal tally determination this year, but with smoking-hot Alexander Bublik perchance awaiting successful the 3rd circular and Djokovic successful the quarters, the gully did not bash him immoderate favors.

Madison Keys

ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.0%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)

The Australian Open champion reached a career-high No. 5 ranking the week aft her 30th birthday, and she's 11-1 successful Slams this play aft a French Open quarterfinal run. Keys has reached 2 Wimbledon quarterfinals and is the projected favourite to scope a quarterfinal against Sabalenka. But she dropped her past 2 grass-court matches successful consecutive sets against grass-court specialists Tatjana Maria and Marketa Vondrousova.

Marketa Vondrousova

ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.2%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (third round)

Vondrousova endured rather the rise-and-fall arc aft winning Wimbledon successful 2023. She was upset successful the archetypal circular past year, past missed astir of 7 months with injury. She mislaid 5 of her archetypal 11 matches of 2025, too, but bushed Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur and Sabalenka (in consecutive sets, nary less) connected the mode to the Berlin rubric connected grass. Still ranked lone 73rd, Vondrousova drew McCartney Kessler successful the archetypal round, perchance followed by Raducanu and Sabalenka from there. That's a unsmooth draw, but the unorthodox lefty volition beryllium a pugnacious out.

Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2500)

They emotion Wimbledon (and/or writer courts)

Elina Svitolina

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.4%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)

The 30-year-old has reestablished a cruising altitude since her post-maternity comeback successful 2023, reaching 5 quarterfinals successful her past 9 Slams. Svitolina is 9-2 astatine Wimbledon successful that span, too. She is comparatively upset-proof astatine this constituent -- implicit the past year, she's 3-7 against top-five opponents but 39-9 (.813 triumph percentage) against everyone other -- and she's a projected favourite to scope the circular of 16 against, astir likely, Sabalenka.

Taylor Fritz

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.5%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 9 Daniil Medvedev (fourth round)

We've talked a batch astir pugnacious draws truthful far, but Fritz astir apt liked his gully a bully amount. Granted, it features big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard successful the archetypal circular and could contiguous No. 26 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (his semifinal hostile this week astatine Eastbourne) successful the 3rd and Daniil Medvedev successful the fourth. But Fritz landed successful Alexander Zverev's quarter, and he's 5-0 against Zverev implicit the past year. If Fritz survives tricky aboriginal tests, he's successful the close 4th for a large run.

Alexander Bublik

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.7%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (third round)

Evidently, falling retired of the ATP apical 50 was a wakeup telephone for the enigmatic Bublik, who won 9 of his past 11 matches successful clay-court season, past bushed 4 consecutive top-25 opponents, including Sinner and Medvedev, to triumph astatine Halle connected writer past week. He is susceptible of beating, oregon losing to, anyone successful the field, and helium could beryllium a large third-round obstacle for Draper successful what mightiness beryllium the astir absorbing imaginable first-week lucifer successful the men's draw.

Barbora Krejcikova

ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round)

One of the top doubles players of the epoch (seven Slam doubles titles), Krejcikova is ever an unpredictable beingness successful a singles draw. In her past 12 Slams, she has won lone 20 matches, but 7 came during past year's Wimbledon run. She has played lone six matches this twelvemonth owed to wounded and had to retreat astatine Eastbourne this week owed to a thigh issue. Her likelihood of a large tally aren't great, but if she generates immoderate momentum, look out.

Lorenzo Musetti

ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.3%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 10 Ben Shelton (fourth round)

It has been a softly fantastic 52 weeks for the 23-year-old Italian. Musetti has reached the semifinals of 2 of his past 4 Slams -- Wimbledon past year, French Open this twelvemonth -- and made the semis oregon amended successful 3 consecutive 1000-level events. In his past 5 tournaments, helium has mislaid lone to Djokovic, Alcaraz oregon Draper. Landing successful Sinner's 4th wasn't kind, but Musetti is simply a projected favourite to scope the quarterfinals, astatine least.

Others: Daniil Medvedev (2023-24 semifinalist, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (2024 quarterfinalist, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Jabeur (2022-23 finalist, +5000), Emma Navarro (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Alex de Minaur (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (2021 semifinalist, +6600), Tommy Paul (2024 quarterfinalist, +6600), Donna Vekic (2024 semifinalist, 100-1), Tatjana Maria (2022 semifinalist, 100-1), Denis Shapovalov (2021 semifinalist, 100-1), Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semifinalist, 100-1), Cameron Norrie (2022 semifinalist, 300-1), Lulu Sun (2024 quarterfinalist, 300-1), Marin Cilic (2017 semifinalist, 400-1), Matteo Berrettini (2021 finalist), Petra Kvitova (2011 and 2014 champion)

Waiting for a surge

Naomi Osaka

ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 5 Qinwen Zheng (second round)

In Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings -- which are based connected show quality, not points acquired astatine tournaments -- Naomi Osaka is up to 31st successful the world. That's beneath her pre-motherhood standards, obviously, but it's beauteous good. But due to the fact that Slams are worthy truthful galore WTA rankings points, and due to the fact that she can't get a bully Slam gully to prevention her life, she's lone 56th successful the rankings that matter.

In each of her past six Slams, Osaka had to look a top-20 hostile by the 2nd round. She astir bushed Swiatek astatine the 2024 French Open, past pummeled No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko successful the US Open lone to tally into a torrid erstwhile top-10er, Karolina Muchova, successful the adjacent round. She topped Muchova astatine the Australian Open but had to propulsion retired of the adjacent circular with injury. She took Paula Badosa heavy into the 3rd acceptable astatine the French Open but lost.

Was her Wimbledon gully immoderate kinder? Not really. She'll astir apt person to look No. 5 Qinwen Zheng successful the 2nd round, and portion she has fundamentally divided 9 sets each clip with Zheng, she mislaid their lone gathering connected writer (which has ne'er been her champion surface). The hunt for a breakthrough volition apt proceed into the hard-court season.

Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)

American sleepers

Amanda Anisimova

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.0%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round)

After taking astir of 2023 disconnected from the tour, Anisimova climbed backmost into the apical 40 successful 2024 and has surged successful 2025. She scored her archetypal 1000-level rubric successful Doha, and she enters Wimbledon having won 9 of her past 11 matches (six of 8 connected grass). With dense groundstrokes and an above-average return, she could beryllium a menace successful Paolini's quarter, astatine slightest if she survives a tricky first-round matchup with Yulia Putintseva.

Ben Shelton

ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)

It's casual to think, "Big serve? Good connected grass!" But that's a spot of an outdated impression, and the 22-year-old Shelton has yet to lick the surface: He's conscionable 8-10 each clip connected grass, and helium enters Wimbledon having mislaid 3 matches successful a row. Still, a round-of-16 tally astatine Wimbledon successful 2024 hints astatine potential, and a hypothetical fourth-round matchup with Musetti (with the victor facing Sinner) would beryllium perfectly dynamite.

Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Krueger (100-1), Frances Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)

The youngsters

Jakub Mensik

ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (fourth round)

The big-hitting 19-year-old was 1 of the fewer men who really took vantage of Jannik Sinner's three-month outpouring suspension, charging past Fritz and Djokovic to triumph the 1000-level Miami title. He has gone conscionable 8-7 since past (2-2 connected grass), but the fundamentals of his crippled are strong, and a semi-friendly gully mightiness springiness him a decent changeable astatine a tally to astatine slightest the 4th round.

Learner Tien

ESPN BET odds: 300-1 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First imaginable top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (second round)

He mightiness not person the big-hitting upside of chap teenagers Mensik oregon Joao Fonseca, but his lefty accuracy and often fantabulous work instrumentality marque him a tricky out. And he's strangely fantabulous against apical players -- he's lone 17-16 successful 2025, but is 3-1 against top-10 opponents with wins implicit Medvedev (Australian Open), Zverev (Acapulco) and, connected grass, Shelton (Mallorca). He could get a accidental astatine a 4th top-10 triumph against Rune successful the 2nd round.

Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)