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ByThomas Copeland and Joshua Cheetham
BBC Verify
At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia on Monday, ship-tracking data shows.
All of the ships were travelling either to or from Saudi ports and made sharp changes of course after the embargo was announced.
Nearly 15% of global sea trade moves through the Red Sea, which connects the Mediterranean and Gulf of Aden through two choke points - the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
The Red Sea has been a key route for exports of Saudi oil since the US-Israeli war with Iran led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely restricted the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf.
This has played a "major role in relieving pressure to global markets" and if the Houthis further restrict trade then "prices will go up", said Rosemary Kelanic from the US-based Defense Priorities think tank.
The day before the Houthis announced their blockade, 20 vessels entered the Red Sea and 22 exited via the Bab al-Mandeb strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
Kelanic told BBC Verify that any Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden "will suppress all international traffic not just Saudi-bound vessels".
The EU's naval force in the region Aspides recommended on Wednesday that "merchant vessels linked to Israeli, US or Saudi interests avoid transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden until the threat level decreases", according to an advisory seen by Reuters news agency.
Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic shows the crude oil tanker Rodos, loaded with Saudi crude, departed for India from the Red Sea port of al-Muajiz on Monday evening. The Liberian-flagged ship set off south towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait but about nine hours later made a u-turn and began sailing north instead.
The Liberian-flagged oil and chemical tanker Mica departed Saudi Arabia's Jazan port on Monday afternoon and also headed south before reversing course.
Ship-tracking data shows at least eight ships bound for the Red Sea have made U-turns instead of entering the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the south as well.
Marshall Islands-flagged vehicle carrier Liu Jiang Kou was sailing to Saudi Arabia's Jeddah port from China before completely changing course on Monday in the Gulf of Aden.
A Hong Kong-flagged crude oil tanker sailing from China called New Prime also turned around as it headed towards Saudi Arabia on Monday and now appears to be waiting in the Arabian Sea.
While the reasons for each course change cannot be independently verified, "the timing is consistent with the embargo announcement," said maritime risk management company Vanguard.
In an email to shipowners on Monday, which the BBC has seen, the Houthis said "vessels are banned from loading or discharging cargo at any Saudi ports". It added that ships "may be subject to targeting in any location within the operational reach".
Image source, EPA
Houthi fighters during a protest against Saudi Arabia in Yemen's capital Sana'a on 17 July
The Houthis have said their embargo is in retaliation for a Saudi blockade of ports and airports in Houthi-controlled north-western Yemen.
Saudi Arabia has condemned the allegation and has vowed to "take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law".
Yemen has been devastated by a civil war since 2014, when the Houthis captured the capital of Sana'a from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, after a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states intervened to try and restore the official government.
There has been an informal truce between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia since 2022. But last week, the Houthis launched missiles at an airport in south-western Saudi Arabia in response to air strikes on Sanaa's airport that they blamed on the kingdom.
The Houthis have previously caused severe disruption to the the 32km-wide (20-mile) Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Shortly after the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, the Houthis began attacking merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, saying they were acting in support of the Palestinians. These attacks led to four ships being sunk, one vessel seized, and nine crew members killed.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted more than 70% of its crude exports from the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu through an east-west pipeline.
About four million barrels per day have been shipped from Yanbu in recent weeks, compared with about 973,000 a year earlier, according to data from Kpler and maritime analytics platform Signal Ocean.
Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst from Kpler, told BBC Verify the only option left to the Saudis if the Bab al-Mandab Strait is effectively closed would be to move oil all the way through the Mediterranean and around the southern tip of Africa to get to Asia.
The impact of the blockade on consumers won't be immediate, but the conflict with Iran has made the global energy system more vulnerable to shocks like these, Das added. "We could weather it for two weeks, three weeks, even a month, but even in that time, we will see higher freight rates, higher energy prices and that bleeds into higher energy consumer costs."
Ships close to the Red Sea are also broadcasting messages in an attempt to deter attacks, a common practise in the region since the Houthis targeted vessels during the war in Gaza.
At least 50 vessels in the region are broadcasting they have armed guards on board, according to data from MarineTraffic.
Martin Kelly, from crisis management firm EOS Risk Group, told BBC Verify that captains will fear the "Houthis might read your situation wrong" and think their ships have "called at a Saudi port in the past, then therefore you could be attacked".
"A lot of these ships are very large crude oil carriers. I think the damage would be catastrophic. There would be certainly be deaths onboard these ships," he added.
Additional reporting by Barbara Metzler
