Sleepers, busts and breakouts for 2025

As fantasy shot draught season inches person and closer, it's clip for our yearly predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout players. Interpretations of the presumption tin alteration for each, but present are the definitions for our purposes:

• Sleeper: A subordinate who is being overlooked and volition outperform his mean draught presumption (ADP) successful 2025.
• Bust: A highly regarded subordinate who volition underperform successful 2025, comparative to his ADP/ranking.
• Breakout: A subordinate who volition enactment up career-best numbers successful 2025 and marque a immense impact.

Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody and Field Yates each contributed a sleeper and a bust for the large violative positions, arsenic good arsenic 1 breakout candidate. You tin find their picks below, arsenic good arsenic their investigation and insights connected a enactment of players they felt astir passionate astir successful each category.

Editor's note: This communicative volition beryllium updated passim the preseason.

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Sleepers

Cockcroft: While we've seen thing yet from J.J. McCarthy astatine this level, arsenic helium missed his full rookie play recovering from aggregate genu surgeries, helium is successful 1 of his position's champion situations successful which to succeed. Coach Kevin O'Connell's violative strategy heavy favors quarterbacks, with the presumption averaging 17.8 phantasy points per crippled (that's 302.4 successful a 17-game season) successful his 3 years successful the role. And McCarthy has 1 of the astir talented groups of receivers, led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, with whom to work.

Bowen: At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, Kaleb Johnson is an casual acceptable for the extracurricular portion strategy successful Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 oregon much yards past play astatine Iowa -- the 2nd astir successful the state down Ashton Jeanty -- and helium tin station receiving numbers connected swings, screens and unders. Johnson volition stock the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but the early-down measurement successful a run-heavy discourtesy tin propulsion him into the RB2 ranks.

Karabell: Some mightiness slice Travis Hunter successful phantasy due to the fact that of interest with imaginable snaps arsenic a two-way player, but the Jaguars look much apt to usage him connected discourtesy alternatively than astatine cornerback. Hunter offers contiguous WR2 upside, with a competent QB successful Trevor Lawrence and a morganatic WR1 successful Brian Thomas Jr. drafting much attention, and astatine an unusual fraction of the outgo according to aboriginal ADP figures (Thomas 19.0, Hunter 68.6).

Clay: The 10th prime successful April's draft, Colston Loveland has a ton of contention for targets successful Chicago, but helium precise good could request a generous stock close retired of the gate, should helium beryllium the existent deal. Working with caller manager Ben Johnson and second-year QB Caleb Williams, Loveland surely could enactment his mode to lineup fastener presumption during his rookie campaign. Rookie choky ends person mostly struggled to marque Year 1 impacts, but times mightiness beryllium changing, considering a first-year subordinate paced the presumption each of the past 2 seasons (Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers).

Busts

Dopp: Baker Mayfield's ADP is betwixt QB6 and QB7, which means you're apt drafting him astatine his ceiling (unless you deliberation he'll champion Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow oregon Lamar Jackson this season). With violative coordinator Liam Coen present the caput manager for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the questions surrounding Chris Godwin (injury) and Mike Evans (age), I'd alternatively draught idiosyncratic with a small much headroom successful their value.

Fulghum: James Cook screams regression campaigner successful 2025, particularly with his ADP hovering astir RB10 to RB12. Despite scoring a combined 9 full TDs successful his archetypal 2 seasons, Cook exploded successful 2024 with 18 full TDs -- including a league-leading 16 connected the ground. With Josh Allen continuing to predominate goal-line enactment and second-year RB Ray Davis earning much opportunities, Cook's touchdown complaint comparative to his measurement of touches is simply not sustainable.

Yates: DJ Moore is an fantabulous subordinate who has shown himself to beryllium a phantasy star. I'm bullish connected QB Caleb Williams nether Ben Johnson's tutelage and deliberation this discourtesy could marque a monolithic leap, but Moore's outlook has maine a small uneasy. The Bears selected choky extremity Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III with their archetypal 2 picks successful the draft, adding 2 much pass-catchers to an discourtesy that is already banking connected a breakout twelvemonth from second-year wideout Rome Odunze. While it's casual to ideate Moore taking connected an Amon-Ra St. Brown relation nether Johnson, it's besides imaginable the discourtesy conscionable has much equilibrium overall, à la Detroit successful 2024 (when St. Brown was a somewhat steadier play option). Moore and Williams didn't physique arsenic seamless a chemistry arsenic I expected past season.

Moody: Kansas City's Rashee Rice is being drafted arsenic a top-20 WR contempt large reddish flags. He's coming disconnected LCL country and faces a imaginable suspension (though 1 isn't expected successful 2025) and superior people contention from Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. Rice flashed elite usage aboriginal past play (36% people stock successful 3 afloat games), but that accumulation came during a agelong erstwhile Brown was injured and Worthy was inactive getting acclimated to the league (RB Isiah Pacheco besides was sidelined). With conscionable 4 vocation WR1 play finishes and nary proven accumulation successful a full-strength offense, Rice's ADP carries sizeable risk.

Breakouts

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I'll instrumentality the layup. The No. 6 prime successful April's draft, Jeanty is easy the apical phantasy imaginable successful this rookie people pursuing a ascendant tenure astatine Boise State. With 33-year-old Raheem Mostert his apical menace for touches, Jeanty is positioned for a feature-back relation close retired of the gross successful Las Vegas. An elite playmaker with a three-down accomplishment set, Jeanty has the upside to beryllium an elite phantasy shot moving back. -- Clay

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye produced applicable phantasy numbers arsenic a rookie, contempt not starting a crippled until October, burdened by the deficiency of immoderate semblance of game-breakers surrounding him and dealing with an incompetent coaching staff. That changes this season, with proven WR Stefon Diggs and violative coordinator Josh McDaniels among the noteworthy additions. Maye adds worth with his legs and, with a small help, could easy execute astatine a QB1 level. -- Karabell

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: The Bears upgraded Williams' caput coach/playcaller, violative enactment and pass-catchers successful the draught and escaped agency. With Ben Johnson expected to bring a QB-friendly strategy that revived Jared Goff's vocation successful Detroit, Williams is poised to go the archetypal QB successful Bears franchise past to transcend 4,000 passing yards and/or 30 TDs successful a season. Don't hide astir his untapped rushing upside, arsenic good (400-plus rushing yards successful each of his past 2 assemblage seasons). -- Fulghum

Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs: Rice has already "broken out," but helium hasn't shown the consistency we request to spot successful fantasy. There was interest astir a suspension to commencement this season, but it appears immoderate imaginable punishment volition beryllium pushed backmost different year, which means Rice should beryllium close backmost to being a top-15 WR. When healthy, helium appeared to instrumentality implicit the relation of information broad that Travis Kelce has dominated for years successful this Chiefs offense, and that relation should lone turn stronger with different twelvemonth nether his belt. Rice is simply a top-15 WR who has WR1 upside with a WR2 ADP. -- Dopp

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears: A top-15 wide receiver successful extremity portion targets and mean extent of people arsenic a rookie, Odunze should look arsenic a much accordant subordinate of an improving Bears discourtesy successful 2025. The accomplishment of Ben Johnson, arsenic good arsenic the continued maturation of backmost Caleb Williams, should lone assistance Odunze's breakout prospects. He is simply a sizable people with explosive quality and among the highest statistical ceilings astatine the position. -- Cockcroft

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: McConkey finished apical 20 successful receptions and receiving yards arsenic a rookie, truthful it tin reasonably beryllium argued that helium broke retired successful 2024. But it's his last 7 games past play that person maine astir enthused. After posting conscionable 1 crippled implicit 80 receiving yards successful his archetypal 9 outings, McConkey reached astatine slightest 80 successful six of his last 7 games, catching astatine slightest 5 passes successful each of them and hauling successful 3 40-plus-yard grabs (compared to conscionable 1 successful his archetypal 9 games). He's the wide apical receiving enactment with an fantabulous quarterback, and his relation and usage should soar adjacent further this season, giving him top-10 receiver upside. -- Yates

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions: Williams had 16 receptions of 20 oregon much yards past season, and helium averaged 14.4 phantasy points per game, buoyed by 4 games of 22-plus points. Despite a deficiency of accordant extremity portion targets (only 4 past season), Williams' electrical play velocity and way deployment tin nutrient breakout weeks successful 1 of the league's apical scoring offenses. And with a bump successful volume, Williams could leap into the WR2 mix. -- Bowen

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills: Coleman has a wide way to a starting relation successful a high-powered Josh Allen discourtesy and past play flashed superior big-play quality arsenic a rookie. Despite missing 4 games, Coleman hauled successful 12 passes of 20-plus yards and averaged 19.2 yards per reception, the third-highest people successful the league among players with astatine slightest 40 targets. With improved wellness and nary existent backup astatine X receiver, Coleman is positioned to marque a second-year leap. -- Moody

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Many expected Harrison to look connected the pro country with a bang, but his underwhelming rookie play landed much similar a thud. After scoring 4 touchdowns successful his archetypal 4 games, Harrison scored lone 4 much the remainder of the season, and his drawback percent (53.4%) was lowest among each rookie wide receivers. But his endowment and pedigree are unchanged and lessons learned from Year 1 could spell a agelong mode toward making 2025 his breakout season. Plus, extracurricular of Trey McBride, helium faces small contention for targets. -- Bell