Should you take Jeanty over Barkley in fantasy drafts?

The ESPN Fantasy squad has been doing mock drafts since precocious spring. It doesn't instrumentality agelong for favorites to look among the participants, particularly erstwhile taking portion successful dozens of drafts with the aforesaid people.

Philadelphia Eagles prima moving backmost Saquon Barkley, who joined the exclusive 2,000-yard rushing nine successful 2024 and led each RBs with 22.2 phantasy points per game, is not the apical backmost disconnected the committee successful drafts this summer. That grant belongs to Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons.

While phantasy managers who haven't done immoderate signifier drafts yet mightiness beryllium amazed to perceive that, they mightiness beryllium adjacent much astounded that determination are immoderate who similar Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty implicit Barkley successful the draft.

Two of our drafters are cleanable candidates to extol the virtues of Jeanty and Barkley. Liz Loza has been selecting Jeanty up of Barkley each along, portion Tyler Fulghum has been trumpeting the seasoned subordinate arsenic the apical moving backmost for 2025, adjacent selecting Barkley with the No. 1 prime erstwhile helium has had the opportunity.

Which RB bash you similar successful 2025: Barkley oregon Jeanty?

Loza: Barkley sewed unneurotic an undeniably historical season, rushing for a career-high 2,005 yards portion converting 33 of 43 targets for an further 278 yards receiving. Barkley led the presumption successful phantasy output, scoring connected a near-weekly ground and averaging 22.2 PPR phantasy points per game. His play was electric. His accumulation was league-winning. And his measurement was arsenic robust.

My saccharine (and super-fun) person Tyler knows however to thin into a bully time. Had the timelines synced, helium could person enactment the "Yo" successful YOLO earlier Matthew McConaughey discovered the bongos. But sometimes exercising a dash of temperance is necessary. Like erstwhile leveraging the entirety of your first-round superior connected a 28-year-old backmost who carried the shot a position-high 345 times the play anterior (and that's not counting the 91 further totes successful the postseason).

The feels swirling astir Barkley's upcoming play are understandably charged. But the information is, he's moving toward a regression.

Dating backmost to 2014, precisely 10 moving backs person cleared 300 carries and astatine slightest 20 receptions. Over that clip span -- with the objection of lone LeSean McCoy successful 2014 -- each RB has registered a dip successful yards per carry, yards per interaction and phantasy points per game. Big-volume backs specified arsenic Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry recorded galore 300-touch seasons, and each clip they experienced a diminution successful ratio and accumulation the pursuing season. Some players, specified arsenic Henry successful 2021 and Adrian Peterson successful 2016, suffered season-ending injuries connected the different broadside of their high-odometer efforts.

Given the creation of the Eagles' discourtesy and Barkley's generational accomplishment set, it's improbable that he'll afloat bust. However, it's arsenic improbable that he'll instrumentality worth based connected his ADP and station elite positional stats. Instead, I'd similar to instrumentality my chances connected Jeanty's caller legs.

Jeanty's endowment is besides said to beryllium generational, having drawn lofty comps to everyone from Steven Jackson to Emmitt Smith. Equal parts pin and bowling ball, the Boise State merchandise is simply a tackle-shedding ace with a debased halfway of gravity and earthy hands. A do-it-all RB who led the FBS successful forced missed tackles (126), Jeanty is poised to feast successful Vegas. The Raiders' discourtesy has sputtered for the amended portion of the past decennary (or two), but with stableness nether halfway and Chip Kelly calling the plays, Jeanty is amended positioned than different rookies who person attempted contiguous phantasy stardom.

To that point, 18 rookie moving backs person finished among the apical 10 astatine the presumption successful full PPR phantasy points since 2012. Ten of those 18 finished seventh oregon better. Ironically, Barkley was the lone backmost to decorativeness arsenic the virtual game's RB1 arsenic a rookie (2018) during that span. Here's to a passing of the torch ... but astatine a amended worth and with fact-filled context.

Fulghum: My saccharine person Liz (also super-fun!) is known for valuing facts implicit feelings. She lays retired immoderate compelling facts astir the probability that Barkley volition backmost up a genuinely historical phantasy season. That I cannot deny.

Sometimes, though, successful beingness we person to eschew specified prudent and nonsubjective skepticism and fto our imaginations tally chaotic -- arsenic Barkley did successful 2024.

What if Barkley is capable to transportation the shot 350-plus times again?
What if the Eagles aren't arsenic ascendant and helium plays much snaps successful the 4th fourth of games?
What if he's utilized a spot much successful the passing crippled (we cognize helium has the chops)?
What if Jalen Hurts doesn't vulture 15 rushing TDs with the tush push?

I deliberation there's plentifulness of crushed to thin into that optimism. Barkley should erstwhile again beryllium moving down the astir ascendant violative enactment successful football, and the Eagles are precise apt going to erstwhile again beryllium adjacent the apical of the league successful points scored per game.

Listen, I americium besides precise precocious connected Jeanty, but helium is simply an unproven yet promising subordinate astatine this point. With Barkley, we person impervious of concept. We've seen it connected the field, and it is glorious: 355.3 PPR points (in conscionable 16 games); seven weeks with 25-plus points; five with 30-plus, highlighted by a season-best 46.2 vs. the Rams successful Week 12. This player, successful this offense, is an implicit hammer.

Keep successful caput that Barkley did each of this successful his first season with the Eagles. It's imaginable his 2024 play was conscionable a prelude to a genuinely nuclear-ceiling play successful 2025. So, don't beryllium afraid. Don't fto the trends Liz pointed retired paralyze you with fearfulness successful Round 1. Barkley is erstwhile again primed to anchor your phantasy squad arsenic a league-winning back. Isn't that a comfy feeling? All you person to bash is beryllium omniscient capable to instrumentality Barkley implicit Jeanty -- oregon immoderate different backmost for that substance -- successful Round 1.