Profar comes back strong? Crawford leads league in steals? Don't be surprised

Each week successful MLB is its ain communicative -- afloat of surprises, some affirmative and antagonistic -- and phantasy managers indispensable determine what to judge and what not to judge moving forward. Perhaps we tin help. If immoderate of these thoughts travel true... don't beryllium surprised!

Atlanta Braves OF Jurickson Profar delivered amazingly fantastic numbers during the 2024 season, hitting .280/.380/.459 for the San Diego Padres implicit 158 games, with 24 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB and 94 runs. Perhaps Profar, progressive this week aft serving an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's performance-enhancing cause policy, achieved these fantastic numbers for dubious reasons, but cipher tin instrumentality distant the information helium was the No. 15 hitter successful ESPN points formats. It was a legitimately invaluable phantasy play for sure.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Profar is simply a top-25 hitter the remainder of the season

Profar homered Wednesday successful his archetypal crippled backmost successful Atlanta's lineup, his archetypal clip playing since the archetypal week of the season. The Braves, decimated by injuries this season, person a agelong mode to spell to get into playoff contention, but they tin bash it with a high-powered offense. Profar plays a cardinal relation there, since the Braves person lacked near tract accumulation and a productive No. 2 hitter. Profar batted 5th Wednesday, but possibly the switch-hitter moves up to the No. 2 spot, nestled betwixt prima OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 1B Matt Olson, DH Marcell Ozuna and 3B Austin Riley. It is simply a large spot to beryllium in.

Fantasy managers mightiness deliberation they cognize everything, but cipher knows for definite what impact Profar taking an amerciable substance played successful his stunning 2024 season. Presuming helium cannot replicate his complaint of show implicit the last 3 months of 2025 is short-sighted. We don't cognize what truly happened oregon when. We bash cognize Profar was a terrific phantasy option, and helium is rostered successful lone 31.8% of ESPN modular leagues, though up 9.4% implicit the past 7 days. Good! He should beryllium 1 of the most added hitters!

Let america beryllium adjacent much positive/optimistic here. Profar doesn't request to nutrient an .839 OPS and people a ton of runs similar past play to substance successful phantasy moving forward, but it seems apt helium does thing statistically that volition intrigue us. Wednesday nighttime was a bully start. Invest and you whitethorn beryllium surprised. Again.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Tampa Bay Rays OF Chandler Simpson leads MLB successful stolen bases

Simpson, backmost from a month-long stint successful Triple-A to enactment connected his outfield defense, continues to look similar the fastest antheral successful shot these days, and determination is seemingly nary stopping him arsenic helium accumulates stolen bases astatine a staggering rate. Simpson, who swiped 104 bases successful 110 minor-league games (504 PA) successful 2024, stole his 23rd basal of his abbreviated big-league play Wednesday successful lone his 44th crippled (164 PA). Simpson is not overwhelmed astatine the plate. He is hitting .296 and making contact. This is who helium is, and it truly matters successful phantasy baseball.

For comparison, Rays SS/2B/3B/OF Jose Caballero leads shot with 30 stolen bases, achieved implicit 69 games (225 PA). The versatile Caballero, with a below-average .651 OPS, is hardly immoderate safer than Simpson for playing time, and the Rays whitethorn question a regular upgrade. Regardless, portion Caballero steals bases astatine a higher complaint than the different league leaders (Pittsburgh Pirates SS/OF Oneil Cruz, Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.), helium isn't a productive player. Simpson, truthful far, is much productive, particularly lately (.801 OPS since returning to the majors).

While stolen bases are a bigger woody successful roto/categories leagues than ESPN modular points formats, it is mildly absorbing that we whitethorn not spot immoderate players scope 50 steals successful 2025. Only Caballero is connected gait to scope the mark, though Simpson would beryllium determination arsenic good had helium played more. MLB made noteworthy adjustments successful caller years to invitation much stolen basal interest, and it seemed to work, arsenic Acuna, Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz and Los Angeles Dodgers SP/DH/unicorn Shohei Ohtani were among six players to bargain much than 50 bases implicit the past 2 seasons.

This mightiness marque phantasy managers a spot sad, but the league's wide stolen basal complaint is down a spot from the 2024 season, from 0.74 steals per crippled to 0.72. (Ohtani, connected gait for 23 steals aft swiping 59 bags past year, is simply a notable faller). There inactive are players stealing bases retired there, and the bully quality is players are doing it much efficiently than ever. The complaint of palmy steals is up from 76% to 79%! If Simpson conscionable gets to play, chances are helium volition tally much than anyone other and possibly pb the sport, adjacent with acold little playing time. It would beryllium rather a story.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Chicago Cubs SP Matthew Boyd is simply a top-20 hurler

Boyd, 34, earned his eighth triumph connected Tuesday, permitting 2 runs implicit 7 innings against the Cleveland Guardians. Fantasy managers person made Boyd 1 of the most added pitchers recently, but helium remains disposable successful much than 30% of modular leagues. How could this be? Boyd is the No. 9 starting pitcher connected the 30-day Player Rater and No. 18 for the season. In points formats, helium is 19th for the play and 12th implicit the past 30 days, close with Pirates ace RHP Paul Skenes.

Perhaps fewer believed Boyd would instrumentality successful Chicago's rotation aft helium delivered a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP implicit 8 starts for past season's Guardians, astir of the outings of the four- oregon five-inning variety. The Cubs gave Boyd a two-year, incentive-laden declaration with an enactment twelvemonth for a third. He has been 1 of baseball's -- and fantasy's -- apical bargains, but immoderate are wary due to the fact that Boyd is already astatine 98 2/3 innings, his astir since 2019.

This is simply a antithetic Boyd from his Detroit Tigers days. We callback erstwhile Boyd struck retired 238 hitters successful 2019 but with lone 9 wins and a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Boyd's adjacent triumph matches his vocation high. He won't onslaught retired 200 hitters, but a 22.1% complaint is solid, ranking 34th among 71 qualified MLB starters. His 5.6% locomotion complaint is 17th. Boyd is throwing his fastball astatine a career-high velocity (93.2 mph), inducing his champion plaything percent (51.9%). There is nary treatment of an innings limit. This each looks legitimate.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Los Angeles Angels SP Yusei Kikuchi makes caller ERA/WHIP past

Kikuchi took an annoying no-decision successful Atlanta connected Wednesday. He near successful the sixth inning up 2-0, with 2 runners connected base. Someone other fto them score. Myriad Braves went connected to score. The Angels lost. Kikuchi's ERA roseate a spot to 2.81, his WHIP remained astatine 1.37. As a Kikuchi capitalist successful a roto/categories format, I bask the coagulated ERA and the strikeouts. Kikuchi mightiness scope 200 whiffs again! The WHIP, however, and deficiency of wins are a problem. Kikuchi isn't the lone crushed my squad (nine progressive pitchers) is among the leaders successful ERA and adjacent the bottommost successful WHIP (and wins), but helium plays a role!

It turns retired that what Kikuchi is doing is rather rare. Chicago White Sox LHP Wilson Alvarez is the lone qualified pitcher since the 1971 play to decorativeness with an ERA connected the bully broadside of 3.00 and a WHIP connected the incorrect broadside of 1.35. Alvarez walked a league-leading 122 hitters successful his noteworthy (and rather fortunate) 1993 season, winning 15 games with a 2.95 ERA (4.24 FIP), but it came with a destructive 1.39 WHIP. I'm aged capable that I astir apt rostered Alvarez successful immoderate league that twelvemonth and couldn't fig retired wherefore I didn't person the champion pitching staff. Go figure.

Kikuchi isn't rather the aforesaid arsenic Alvarez, arsenic helium misses much bats and his inefficiency causes him to neglect to spell heavy into games, frankincense lone 3 wins successful 18 starts. Kikuchi is the No. 57 starting pitcher successful roto/categories formats, which isn't great, but helium is the No. 28 starter successful ESPN modular points formats. Whoa! Big difference! Of course, the league successful which I roster Kikuchi is not a points league. Still, I americium intrigued. I stake Kikuchi's ERA rises immoderate (his FIP is 3.79), but his WHIP should autumn a spot (it was 1.20 past season). What an odd, but inactive relevant, combination!