Panic or patience? What to do with Aaron Judge on the IL

Aaron Judge's diagnosis of a flexor tendon strain successful his close elbow mightiness person been framed arsenic a "mostly bully news" concern by the New York Yankees, but pardon america fantasy managers for grasping clasp of the "bad news" viewpoint, that being that the No. 1 subordinate successful our crippled is present sidelined and has rekindled his injury-history question.

Even now, 5 days aft Judge's astir caller appearance, he's inactive the top-scoring hitter successful presumption of phantasy points (402, oregon 23 much than Shohei Ohtani has arsenic a hitter alone), arsenic good arsenic the No. 1 sanction connected our Player Rater. Such players, obviously, are irreplaceable.

Nevertheless, moving guardant without Judge is what our phantasy teams indispensable bash -- and that spawns a big of questions. How devastating is it, really, to suffer a top-shelf endowment to injury?

What are Judge's rest-of-season prospects, considering his Yankees person spun this arsenic simply a imaginable 10-day absence?

Should phantasy managers successful ESPN leagues (gasp) drop Judge?

This isn't a communal occurrence

Though our corporate memories are that only our first-round phantasy picks are the ones stricken with semipermanent injuries, Judge's illustration -- the wide No. 1 wide subordinate getting wounded for an extended play and, for this argument, let's specify that arsenic a minimum 10-day lack -- is really unusual.

I scrolled backmost done the past 45 completed seasons, spanning phantasy baseball's "rotisserie era" (1980-present), and recovered that only two top-scoring hitters during that clip either landed connected the IL oregon endured astatine slightest a 10-day lack owed to wounded after the All-Star interruption (counting lone No. 1 rankings astatine the day of injury): Edgar Martinez, successful 1996, and David Ortiz, successful 2012.

Shohei Ohtani would person led successful phantasy scoring astatine the clip of his September 2023 wounded if we counted his pitching contributions, but arsenic a hitter helium was 75 points down then-leader Ronald Acuna Jr., portion Edwin Encarnacion was starring successful scoring astatine the clip of his July 2014 injury, but that happened days earlier the All-Star break.

Interestingly enough, each 4 of these players spent important clip arsenic designated hitters -- Martinez, Ortiz and Ohtani played determination full-time -- and each but Ohtani were (like Judge, who is 33) astatine slightest 31 years aged astatine the time. None had a akin wounded to Judge's, arsenic Martinez suffered bruised ribs, Ortiz had an Achilles' strain, Ohtani injured his oblique, and Encarnacion dealt with a quadriceps strain, but the quartet had checkered results aft returning -- Ortiz appeared successful lone 1 much crippled successful 2012 -- fueling worries astir Judge's rest-of-year contributions.

Judge's wounded is besides antithetic

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Passan: Yankees successful 'precarious' concern with Judge's injury

Jeff Passan explains the timeline for Aaron Judge's imaginable instrumentality from the injured list.

Expanding the tract to any hitter, not simply the ones who were carrying their phantasy teams astatine the clip astatine the clip of injury, Judge's wounded -- a flexor tendon strain successful his close elbow -- isn't 1 we commonly spot successful hitters.

Perusing my wounded database, I could find lone 7 hitters crossed the past decennary (2016-25) who dealt with immoderate benignant of flexor tendon wounded (counting those specifically listed arsenic specified astatine the clip of IL placement): Justin Morneau and Steve Pearce, successful 2016; Jay Bruce and Aaron Hicks, successful 2019; P.J. Higgins, successful 2021; Mitch Garver, successful 2022; and Endy Rodriguez, successful 2024.

Six of those 7 players yet required surgical involution (Bruce was the exception), and each 1 required astatine slightest a month's lack earlier returning from either country oregon his archetypal IL stint. That said, nary was adjacent adjacent to the caliber hitter that Judge is. Garver's illustration -- helium returned aft a 10-day lack to service exclusively arsenic a DH, hitting for much powerfulness aft his stint (5.6% HR rate, .236 ISO) than earlier it (3.4%, .141 ISO) -- is the closest comparable arsenic acold arsenic timetable and expected post-injury role.

Flexor strains are overmuch much communal for pitchers, accounting for implicit 90% of specified IL stints successful my database. Those who were capable to marque a instrumentality wrong the aforesaid play mostly missed 1-2 months, but again, that's not an apt examination constituent for Judge, being that a pitcher's exclusive worth is throwing the baseball, which Judge isn't readying to bash initially upon his return.

How devastating is this?

Should Judge so miss lone the 10-day minimum, past beryllium capable to deed astatine adjacent 90% of his anterior aforesaid for the remainder of the season, phantasy owners mightiness scarcely announcement the effects of his lack successful mixed leagues. It's a antithetic substance altogether successful larger leagues -- deliberation 20-team mixed and AL-only types -- but the escaped cause excavation is plentifulness stocked with short-term replacements.

It's the uncertainty surrounding Judge's betterment that amplifies this question. Remember, the Yankees person nary inducement to beryllium wholly unfastened astir Judge's rest-of-season prognosis, particularly not with the trade deadline (their champion and possibly past accidental to get close tract reinforcements) rapidly approaching. It's wholly imaginable that Judge mightiness necessitate a lengthier IL stint than 10 days, execute astatine little than 90% of his anterior aforesaid portion managing the wounded arsenic a DH, yet necessitate immoderate benignant of surgical correction, oregon immoderate operation of the the above.

Let's instrumentality year-to-date points leagues returns to exemplify the interaction of losing Judge. Among primary-position outfielders who person been disposable successful betwixt 65-85% of ESPN leagues connected immoderate fixed day this season, an effectual "replacement level" for the position, present are the accumulation levels you tin expect:

• Next 10 days: 2.06 FPTS/G, 13.0 full FPTS per player, 28% scored 20-plus FPTS

• Next 20 days: 2.05 FPTS/G, 25.7 full FPTS per player, 25% scored 40-plus FPTS

• Next 30 days: 2.04 FPTS/G, 37.8 full FPTS per player, 22% scored 60-plus FPTS

That's rather a diminution from Judge's 3.90 phantasy points per crippled frankincense acold and, if we're to presume conservatively that he'll miss 20 days and execute astatine 90% of his anterior aforesaid aft returning, that would enactment him and his waiver ligament replacement (as they'd inhabit the aforesaid roster spot) astatine 572 phantasy points for the season. That's 60 down what Judge's gait was astatine the decision of his astir caller crippled played, oregon a per-game drop-off of 1.02 phantasy points per crippled the remainder of the way.

That's a important deed to phantasy teams, but not arsenic catastrophic arsenic you mightiness think, arsenic lone six different hitters (Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto) are connected gait for a greater rest-of-season total. While Judge's wounded perfectly stings, but the lone genuinely scary portion of it is the imaginable that his betterment goes much poorly than that 20-day, 90%-production estimate.

So, should you chopped Judge?

That Judge could miss this overmuch time, yet inactive find himself among the apical 7 scorers successful presumption of phantasy points for the season, is testament to his gargantuan earthy ability. There are lone a fistful of genuinely elite performers successful the crippled -- untouchable players successful phantasy leagues. Heck, 8 weeks ago, I mused astir the absurdity of adjacent trading Judge successful this precise space.

That said, each roster concern is different, and determination volition beryllium teams -- a tiny percentage, granted -- successful hopeless capable circumstances to request to wide immoderate and each disposable space. Manager Aaron Boone's optimistic update connected Judge's betterment -- the slugger is ramping up shot activities with a people instrumentality day of Aug. 5, meaning a minimum IL enactment -- makes it darned adjacent imperative you support him rostered. Hey, you bash get a brace of IL spots successful ESPN's modular format!

Sum it each up and, yes, determination are reasons to beryllium acrophobic astir Judge's imaginable contributions down the stretch. He's besides 1 of the astir peculiar players we've ever seen, and that fuels the wide consciousness of optimism surrounding his recovery.

Keep Judge... but support your fingers crossed.