'Not an easy inbox' for new Scottish Labour leader

By

Scotland political correspondent

There's an old joke involving someone asking for directions, and the reply comes: "Well, if I were you, I wouldn't start from here."

And that's probably the (unhelpful) advice a lot of people would give the next Scottish Labour leader.

It's a job that will go to one of two MSPs this weekend - Michael Marra or Joe Fagan.

The victor will inherit a party that had a historically bad result in May's Scottish Parliament election. They will lead a group of just 17 MSPs.

That makes them the joint second largest party at Holyrood, tied with Reform UK, but there remains a gulf between Labour and their SNP rivals.

Anas Sarwar fell well short of his goal to become First Minister of Scotland, and swapped Holyrood for the House of Lords shortly afterwards.

It has been revealed during the contest to find Sarwar's successor that the party's membership has slumped to around 11,000.

You can see why it's a less-than-ideal starting point.

So what are the challenges facing the next leader? And what – if anything – can they do to get the Scottish Labour show back on the road?

We asked the pollster Mark Diffley to spell out some of the issues that Marra or Fagan will have to tackle.

He didn't mince his words: "The party has become a bit of an irrelevance, and I think that is the biggest hurdle that they face going forward.

"The vast majority of people don't really know either of the candidates and, worryingly for them, don't know that the contest is going on".

So what does the pollster think the winner needs to do?

Diffley spells out three priorities: become relevant, develop a relationship with the prime minister (who he says is currently popular in Scotland) and spell out appealing policies.

Some aspects of that will be easier than others.

One senior party insider agreed with much of Mark Diffley's analysis, warning "it's not an easy inbox".

They told me there's a need to change approach, and Labour might look to learn from a rival party – the Scottish Greens.

The Green strategy has been to get their policies taken on by the SNP. You'll often hear the Greens talk about Scottish government decisions and essentially say: 'that was our idea'.

And Labour, this insider argues, should be taking the same approach.

There could be offers to back SNP budgets in return for more public control of buses or higher wages for care workers, for example.

At future elections, Labour could then have tangible "wins" to point at.

It would be a change in approach from a party that tended to oppose or abstain on budgets in the last parliament.

It's a view shared by another party figure, who called for a constant "SNP bad" approach to be ditched, saying "the electorate rejected that wholesale".

They added that Scottish Labour had to be "far more considerate about where we pick our battles", and said that they should approach SNP policies, like cutting the number of health boards, constructively.

And that's not the only pressing issue the new leader may have to address.

While many think Andy Burnham has had a good start as prime minister, there is concern within Scottish Labour about some aspects of Number 10's approach north of the border.

Some told me they believe the prime minister should have made more visits to Scotland. And another said Downing Street had been "a bit all over the shop" when it came to a second independence referendum.

And that brings us to an age old area that could prove tricky for the next leader: the constitution.

Andy Burnham seemed to set hares running last week in the Commons when he suggested there was a scenario where a second Scottish independence referendum could be on the table.

His spokesperson quickly rowed back on the comments, but SNP figures couldn't believe their luck when the door seemed to be opened (even just slightly) to a second vote.

It's an issue that the new leader of Scottish Labour will have to engage with.

Both candidates have, at times in this contest, seemed to struggle to articulate exactly where Scottish Labour stands on the question of a second referendum.

Perhaps one area where the new leader may have a slightly easier time is managing their group of MSPs.

It would be a bit of a mean joke to say this is easy when there's not that many of them - but there's an element of truth here for Scottish Labour.

This hasn't been a particularly ill-tempered contest, and there aren't vast ideological differences between Joe Fagan and Michael Marra.

The loser in the contest is unlikely to make life particularly difficult for the winner.

Although it's important to note that this contest hasn't been a bed of roses, with Monica Lennon labelling the party "quite nasty" when she failed to make the final leadership ballot.

But the overall state of Scottish Labour, and its pattern of decline at Holyrood, will be the most pressing concern for the winner.

The party is in a hole, and getting out of it will fall to either Joe Fagan or Michael Marra.

Getting this movement to a more positive destination is possible, but it looks like a gruelling task.

Perhaps they wouldn't want to start from here, but they don't get a say in that.