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Mike ClayJul 5, 2025, 10:00 AM ET
- Mike Clay is simply a elder writer for phantasy shot and the NFL astatine ESPN. Mike is simply a subordinate of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections powerfulness the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and helium besides appears connected "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
As you get acceptable for fantasy shot 2025, beryllium definite to get plentifulness of signifier by utilizing our Mock Draft Lobby and support way of Mike Clay's updated projections passim the season.
Football statistic are highly hard to predict, but past continues to amusement that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is importantly easier than you mightiness imagine.
During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, determination were 169 instances successful which a wide receiver oregon choky extremity scored less than 5 touchdowns connected 50-plus violative touches earlier managing astatine slightest 50 touches the precise adjacent season. Of those 169, 114 (67.5%) scored much touchdowns the adjacent season.
Focusing successful connected the 48 players successful that radical who scored less than 3 touchdowns during the archetypal year, 39 (81.3%) scored much touchdowns the adjacent season. Of the 16 who scored either 1 oregon zero touchdowns, 14 (87.5%) recovered the extremity portion much often the adjacent year. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were liable for the 2 exceptions.
Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored less than 5 TDs connected 50-plus touches, with notables nether 3 scores including Jake Ferguson (0), Elijah Moore (1), Jaylen Waddle (2), Dalton Schultz (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Hunter Henry (2) and Mike Gesicki (2).
We spot akin results if we tally this trial connected moving backs. There are 45 instances successful which a backmost failed to scope 7 touchdowns connected 200-plus touches earlier managing 200 touches again the adjacent season. Of those 45, 36 (or 80.0%) scored much touchdowns the adjacent season. Interestingly, determination were 4 backs who failed to scope 4 touchdowns successful the archetypal twelvemonth but each scored astatine slightest 7 times the adjacent play (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The mean second-year touchdown full was 9.3!
In 2023, six RBs fell abbreviated of 7 TDs connected 200-plus touches and went connected to rack up 200 touches successful 2024. Of those six, 4 scored much TDs, with the exceptions Tony Pollard (6 to 5) and D'Andre Swift (6 to 6).
Last season, 5 RBs were held nether 7 TDs connected 200-plus touches: Rico Dowdle (5 TDs), Pollard (5), Swift (6), Tyrone Tracy (6) and Najee Harris (6).
If you skipped each that, oregon conscionable tuned retired portion scanning implicit the math, the constituent present is simple: NFL players thin to bounce backmost -- often successful a large mode -- erstwhile they station an unusually debased touchdown fig and spot akin playing clip the pursuing season.
In this piece, I'll beryllium referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), which is simply a statistic that weighs each carry/target and converts the information into 1 fig that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put different way, it is however galore touchdowns a league-average subordinate would've scored with the nonstop aforesaid accidental arsenic the subordinate shown.
A cautious introspection of each of the beneath player's 2024 usage tells america that we should expect a boost successful scoring accumulation this season.
Note that this survey is constricted to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 6
McBride was the poster lad for atrocious TD luck successful 2024, totaling 3 scores (two receiving, neither of which came until Week 17) contempt finishing 2nd astatine the presumption successful targets, catches, yards, extremity portion targets (10) and phantasy points. Incredibly, McBride led each choky ends successful expected TDs (7.9) and though helium besides didn't people overmuch successful 2023 (three TDs connected 108 targets), we tin safely expect a vocation precocious successful 2025.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 8
Pickens scored a career-low 3 TDs past play contempt much than doubling his erstwhile vocation full successful extremity portion targets (12, compared to 10 during his archetypal 2 seasons). The extremity portion people full ranked 12th among receivers (he caught lone 2 of them) contempt him missing 3 games and ranking 40th astatine the presumption successful catches. Even successful a caller discourtesy and with CeeDee Lamb successful the mix, Pickens figures to boost his scoring big-time this season.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 7
Of the 11 players who handled 13-plus extremity portion targets past season, Odunze (who had precisely 13) was the lone 1 with less than 5 TDs. The 2024 No. 9 wide prime was connected the tract a ton arsenic a rookie (eighth among WRs successful routes), but uneven QB play constricted his ratio (nine of the 13 extremity portion targets weren't catchable and his 37% wide off-target complaint was 2nd highest among WRs). A second-year betterment from Caleb Williams would spell a agelong mode for Odunze.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Kelce was constricted to a career-low 3 touchdowns past season, each of which came connected his six extremity portion targets. It's casual to constitute disconnected the dip arsenic a merchandise of his age, but Kelce was inactive successful the apical 5 among choky ends successful snaps, routes, targets, catches and yardage. Kelce remains a heavy utilized people successful Kansas City's pass-heavy discourtesy and figures to find the extremity portion much often this season.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 3
Ferguson holds the unfortunate favoritism of having the astir targets (88) among each players who failed to drawback a touchdown walk past season. The choky extremity was constricted to 2 extremity portion targets aft pacing the presumption with 10 (which helped him to 5 TDs) successful 2023. A steadfast Dak Prescott volition assistance his rebound chances successful 2025.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 4
Etienne had a batch spell incorrect during a disappointing 2024, and a deficiency of scoring was 1 of them. After scoring 12 TDs (sixth astir among RBs) and getting 9 carries wrong the 5-yard enactment successful 2023, Etienne plummeted to 2 scores (both came during Weeks 1-2) and 5 carries wrong the 5 past season. He mightiness nary longer beryllium the team's superior goal-line backmost (Tank Bigsby has taken that role), but helium gets capable tally to let plentifulness much scoring.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
After overachieving with 15 touchdowns (8.9 xTD) during his archetypal 2 NFL seasons, Waddle has been deed hard by regression the past 2 seasons (six TDs, 6.7 xTD). Waddle simply hasn't been utilized overmuch adjacent the extremity enactment (16 vocation extremity portion targets, including 2 successful 15 games past season). The 26-year-old's usage suggests he'll ne'er person a precocious TD ceiling, but helium tin surely amended connected 2 TDs connected 92 targets, particularly successful a bully Miami offense.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 4
You work that correctly: Hockenson didn't find the extremity portion successful immoderate of his 10 regular-season games past season. Perhaps we shouldn't beryllium excessively shocked, arsenic Hockenson has ne'er been a large TD scorer (career precocious of six successful 2020 and 2022), but helium surely saw capable enactment to let a fistful of scores (2.0 xTD, 3 extremity portion targets). For what it's worth, the turnaround mightiness person already started, arsenic helium caught Minnesota's lone postseason touchdown.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Henry formed a bully transportation with Drake Maye past play -- helium ranked top-eight among TEs successful targets, catches and yards -- but the touchdowns simply didn't follow. Henry's 4.8 xTD and six extremity portion targets some ranked apical 12 astatine the position, but 25 choky ends scored much TDs. Henry does person a past of uncovering the extremity portion (eight successful 2016, 9 successful 2021, six successful 2023), and helium seldom falls abbreviated of his expected full (40 TDs, 37.4 xTD successful career). We tin expect a rebound successful 2025, particularly arsenic Maye enters Year 2.
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