Migrant crackdown risks choking off critical supply of US workers

At his 1,200-person cleaning business in Maryland, chief executive Victor Moran carefully screens new recruits to make sure they are authorised to work in the US.

Even so, President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigrants is starting to chip away at his workforce.

About 15 people have left his company, Total Quality, since Trump won a fight to strip immigrants from Venezuela and Nicaragua from temporary protections shielding them from deportation, he says.

If the White House expands its efforts, it could cost him hundreds more of his workers, who rely on similar work permits and would be difficult to replace.

Similar kinds of concerns are reverberating at businesses across the US, as Trump's crackdown on immigrants appears to pick up pace, threatening to choke off a supply of workers that is increasingly critical to the US economy.

Nearly one in five workers in the US was an immigrant last year, according to census data. That marked a record high in data going back decades, up from less than 10% in 1994.

Trump has said he is targeting people in the US illegally, who account for an estimated 4% of the US workforce. His pledge to conduct mass deportations was a centrepiece of his campaign and an issue on which he drew widespread support, including many Hispanic voters.

His administration has resumed raids at workplaces, a tactic that had been suspended under Biden.

But White House efforts have been much broader in scope, taking aim at people in the US on student visas; suspending admissions of refugees; and moving to revoke temporary work permits and other protections that had been granted to immigrants by previous presidents.

The actions threaten disruption to millions of people, many of whom have lived and worked in the US for years.

"We are terrified," says Justino Gomez, who is originally from El Salvador and has lived in the US for three decades.

The 73-year-old is authorised to work under a programme known as TPS, which grants temporary work permits and protection from deportation, based on conditions in immigrants' home countries.

His employment, first as a dishwasher and line cook in a restaurant and now as a cleaner, helped him send an adopted daughter in El Salvador to school to become a teacher.

But Trump has already taken steps to end the programme for people from Haiti and Venezuela. Mr Gomez, who lives in Maryland, fears El Salvador could be next.

"Every time I leave home, I have this stress on my mind," he tells the BBC, through a translator provided by his labour union, 32BJ SEIU. "Even when I go to the metro, I'm afraid that ICE will be there waiting to abduct us."

Many of Trump's actions have been subject to legal challenge, including a lawsuit over TPS brought by the SEIU.

But even if the White House does not successfully ramp up arrests and deportations, analysts say his crackdown could weigh on the economy in the near-term, as it scares people like Mr Gomez into hiding and slows arrivals.

Growth in the workforce, which has been powered by immigrants, has already flattened since January, when Trump took office.

As firms have a harder time finding workers, it will limit their ability to grow, slowing the economy, warns economist Giovanni Peri of University of California, Davis.

A smaller workforce could also feed inflation, by forcing firms to pay more to recruit staff.

If the policies are sustained, they could have far-reaching economic consequences, Prof Peri adds. He points to the example of Japan, which has seen its economy shrink as it keeps a lid on immigration and the population ages.

"The undocumented raids are a piece of a policy that really wants to transform the United States from one of the places where immigrants come, are integrated and part of the success of society to a closed country," he says.

"Instead of an engine of growth, it will become a more stagnant and slow growing and less dynamic economy."

Many firms say it is already hard to find people to fill the jobs available.

Adam Lampert, the chief executive of Texas-based Cambridge Caregivers and Manchester Care Homes, which provides assisted living and in-home care, says about 80% of his 350 staff are foreign-born.

"I don't go out and place ads for non-citizens to fill our roles," he says. "It is the immigrants who are answering the call."

Like Mr Moran, he said Trump's moves had already cost him some workers, who had been authorised to work on temporary permits.

He said he was also worried about the ripple effects of Trump's crackdown on his business, which in some ways competes with undocumented workers employed directly by families to provide care.

He said if those workers are forced out, it will drive up demand for his own staff - forcing him to pay more, and ultimately raise his rates.

"We're going to have incredible inflation if you scrape all these people out of the economy," he warned. "We can't do without these people in the workforce."

At Harris Health System, a major hospital network in Texas, Trump's policy changes have already led to the loss of some workers, says chief executive Esmail Porsa.

He says training American workers to fill the jobs available in his sector would take years, given the rising needs.

"As the population is getting older and we are clamping down on one viable source of current and future workforce, this issue will come to a head," he says.

Trump last week acknowledged the disruption his policies were creating for sectors that rely heavily on undocumented labour, such as hospitality and agriculture, even reportedly pausing workplace raids in some industries temporarily after receiving blowback from fellow Republicans.

But despite the concerns about the economic impact, Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin told the BBC that such raids remain a "cornerstone" of their efforts.

In the homebuilding industry, firms across the country are reporting seeing some work crews stop showing up for work, which will slow construction and raise costs in a sector where prices are already a concern, says Jim Tobin, president of the National Association of Homebuilders, which represents businesses in the sector.

The industry has called on Congress to reform immigration laws, including creating a special visa programme for construction workers.

But Mr Tobin says he was not expecting big changes to immigration policy anytime soon.

"I think it's going to take a signal from the president about when it's time to engage," he says. "Right now it's all about enforcement."