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Confronting fears of violence
Where Lula arguably struggles the most, though, is with public security.
Polls show that violence is the top concern for Brazilian voters. The research firm Quaest found that 33 percent of voters ranked it as their primary concern, compared with 15 percent for the second-highest issue, the economy.
Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to wield those fears of crime as an advantage.
At his campaign launch in Rio de Janeiro last month, the senator argued that the Lula government had “surrendered sovereignty” to criminal gangs like the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho.
He has also voiced his support for efforts under Trump to name Brazilian gangs "foreign terrorist organisations".
While Lula has promised to create a dedicated Public Security Ministry, Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged more hardline measures, including the construction of five maximum-security “mega-prisons”.
“Repressive strategies are flashier,” said Lima, the Brazil analyst. “If you arrest a bunch of criminals, if you kill a bunch of criminals, even if it doesn’t fix anything, it gives the impression that something is being done.”
While Lula holds a lead in pre-election polls, this year’s vote is expected to go down to the wire.
A September survey from Datafolha found that, in a run-off, Lula receives 46 percent support to Bolsonaro's 43 percent.
But the two candidates also carry high rejection rates. Polls show that about 50 percent of voters refuse to vote for Bolsonaro, roughly the same percentage that refuses to vote for Lula.
That leaves the two frontrunners with a narrow pool of undecided voters.
Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that Brazil’s political arena is essentially split in half, “between the increasingly radical right and moderate progressives".
Her research suggests that this year's election will be decided not by the mobilisation of party bases, but by those entirely disconnected from politics. That small fraction of voters will be key in so tight a race.
“The portion of the population that isn’t interested in politics, be that because they are working all day or feel like politics has never benefitted them, they will be crucial to winning the election," Goulart said.
"Whoever manages to get this slice of the electorate on their side will win.”
A Lula re-election victory could provide a rare bright spot for Latin America's battered left wing. A loss, however, would mean continent-wide alignment with the Trump White House – at least, until the next major election.
