Labour face tough fight in Gorton and Denton by-election

Sir Keir Starmer's grip on power is weak and while the PM has consolidated his position after Labour's leader in Scotland called for him to quit, there are dangers lurking in the weeks ahead.

May's Scottish, Welsh and local elections are the moment many Labour MPs predict Sir Keir could be challenged if results are bad for the party.

But a contest in a south-east corner of Greater Manchester - the Gorton and Denton by-election - is taking place at the end of this month and could be just as perilous for the PM.

Labour won more than half the vote here just 18 months ago, but since then MP Andrew Gwynne was suspended after offensive text messages he had sent were published and he has now resigned from parliament.

The region's mayor Andy Burnham saw this contest as an opportunity - a route back to Westminster and perhaps even the Labour leadership.

But Burnham was blocked by Keir Starmer and Labour's ruling committee.

Instead, local councillor Angeliki Stogia has been selected as the Labour candidate.

She moved to Manchester from Greece 30 years ago, and tells me she wants to win to stop what she calls the "division" offered by Reform UK.

We meet in a park and sit under a cafe's gazebo to escape the rain. Like some of the other candidates I speak to, Stogia is fizzing with nervous energy.

The relentless pace and scrutiny of a by-election with hustings, media appearances and hours of door-knocking is unlike any other political campaign.

It takes a few times of me asking to get clarity over whether Stogia thinks Starmer is a good prime minister - she does.

He has yet to visit the campaign and when I ask if he's on Stogia's leaflets, it sounds like he's not.

"I am at the heart of my leaflets," she insists.

Reform UK have taken over an industrial unit in the corner of a business park to be its campaign headquarters.

Once you get past the security guard on the door, a cavernous space is revealed.

There is an enormous union flag, piles of leaflets, and images of Nigel Farage alongside the party's candidate Matt Goodwin.

Once a professor who studied right-wing politicians, Goodwin has now been tempted to try and become one. He is also a columnist and presenter on GB News.

He argues that Labour has taken voters here for granted and has strong opinions on immigration and integration.

When I raise his comments in a recent blog that "Trump is right. Europe is facing civilizational erasure", Goodwin shoots back: "Do you not have concerns about the direction of Europe? … We have very real problems with the pace of change in Western nations."

The name Gorton and Denton really doesn't sum up this slightly bodged-together assortment of communities, which also includes Levenshulme, and Burnage - once the home of Oasis's Gallagher brothers.

There are up-and-coming streets with nice cafes and grocery shops but also places where units are shuttered. Relative child poverty here is twice the national UK average.

Political scientist Rob Ford describes the seat as "a tale of two Manchesters on opposite edges of Labour's unravelling electoral coalition".

One side of this oddly-shaped constituency is home to lots of university students and graduates and the population is 40% Muslim.

The other part of the constituency is 83% white, with many in low-paying jobs.

Lots of people I speak to complain about littering and fly-tipping. Some seem pretty vulnerable.

One man I met at a cafe said he didn't want to be interviewed, but explained he was in his twenties, unemployed and living with his grandparents. He said his dad was in prison and mum was a drug user. He asked for reassurance that things would work out for him.

Gaza's future remains an important issue for the Green Party and Palestinian flags are emblazoned on a lot of their leaflets.

The Greens are optimistic about their chances of taking the seat.

Their candidate, Hannah Spencer, was more than an hour late to meet us after getting stuck in traffic on the way back from a plastering course. She is already a qualified plumber.

I asked her about comments she made online a few years ago that she was "glad" to move out of the area and that it was full of "money laundering takeaways".

Spencer responds matter-of-factly: "Like a lot of people, it's taken me a while to become proud of the places I've lived. I've struggled a lot in the years that I was here... I think that's the feeling that a lot of people share."

Former police officer Charlotte Cadden is the Conservative candidate. She used to lead the team that helps protect MPs. Now she wants to be one.

Although her party came second here in the 2019 election, they were pushed into fifth place in 2024.

Can she actually win? "I'm not ruling anything out," Cadden says.

"I have got 30 years in policing, I've worked in this area. I live here… It might be overambitious, but I think we're going to do very well."

A lot has changed since Labour's solid victory here in 2024.

And the fact the result here seems so unpredictable is evidence of the precariousness of the PM's position.