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The joint, coordinated attack on Iran by the US and Israel eliminated the high-value target of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, killing Tehran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the US president repeatedly called for “regime change” in the Islamic Republic.
But whether that goal will now be realised remains uncertain.
A Washington Post report says a regime-change transition in Iran is still “unlikely.”According to a classified report cited by the Washington Post, even a large-scale US military assault on Iran would be unlikely to topple the country’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, casting doubt on regime-change expectations as the Donald Trump administration signals a broader military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”
The report, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with its contents, questions President Donald Trump’s plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership and install a new ruler of his choosing.The intelligence assessment was completed about a week before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. It examined different scenarios, including a limited campaign targeting Iran’s leaders and a broader assault on the country’s leadership and institutions.
In both situations, analysts concluded that Iran’s system would likely continue functioning even if Khamenei was killed. They said Iran’s clerical and military institutions have established procedures to ensure continuity of power.The report also described the possibility of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control as “unlikely,” according to people familiar with the classified document.The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which prepared the report, brings together experienced analysts from across the US intelligence community.
Its reports are meant to reflect the collective judgment of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies.The CIA referred questions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. The White House also did not confirm whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving the military operation. Since the war began, the conflict has expanded, including submarine activity in the Indian Ocean and missile confrontations near Nato member Turkey.“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”Other major media outlets, including the New York Times, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, have also reported that US intelligence agencies doubt Iran’s opposition could quickly take power.
However, the specific analysis by the NIC on possible outcomes of different military offensives had not been previously reported.Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the assessment reflects a deep understanding of Iran’s political system.“It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years,” she said.The intelligence report does not appear to have examined other possible options, such as deploying US ground troops in Iran or supporting ethnic Kurdish groups to spark a rebellion. It is also unclear whether the large-scale operation discussed in the report is exactly the same as the military campaign now underway.Meanwhile, Iran’s succession process appears to be unfolding even as the country faces heavy US and Israeli air and naval strikes.The decision on Iran’s next supreme leader rests with the powerful Assembly of Experts, a senior clerical body. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security officials also have significant influence.There has been speculation that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late supreme leader, could take over. But no official announcement has been made. According to a Western security official, the IRGC is pushing his candidacy, though some senior figures — including Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council — have opposed the move.As the war enters its second week, Trump has continued to demand Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” as he wrote in a post on Truth Social. He has also suggested that he should play a role in choosing Iran’s next leader.Trump told journalists that Mojtaba Khamenei is “incompetent” and a “lightweight,” and said he does not want leaders who will simply “rebuild” Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” he told NBC News.Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected the idea that Trump would have any role in choosing the country’s next leader.“The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf wrote on X, referring to the late sex offender who had once been close to Trump.Current and former US officials say they have not yet seen signs of a mass uprising inside Iran or serious divisions within the government or security forces that could lead to regime change.
In the past, Iran’s security forces have shown they are willing to suppress protests forcefully. During demonstrations earlier this year over the country’s economic problems, thousands of protesters were killed.So far, Trump’s message to the Iranian public has been to stay indoors until the US-Israel bombing campaign ends.Experts say that as long as Iran’s clerical and military leadership remains intact, Trump will have limited influence over the country’s political future.“Bending the knee to Trump would go against everything they stand for,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The upper echelons of the clerical establishment are ideological, and so their modus operandi is to resist American imperialism.”Trump might be able to influence events if the Iranian government collapses. But the intelligence report suggests that the system is still strong.“There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” Maloney said. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”
