Judge, Ohtani and ... Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Welcome to the mediate of the 2025 MLB season. We've already passed the earthy halfway constituent (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic mentation of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we've seen much regular-season shot successful 2025 than we'll get the remainder of the way.

With that successful mind, let's wade into this month's Stock Watch by taking a retrospective rotation astir the majors. As usual, we'll slot teams according to the existent competitory hierarchy and spot however the representation has changed since we past convened. In addition, we'll enactment the ascendant storyline that has emerged for each nine and manus retired first-half MVP awards for each 30 teams.

Should we sanction those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let's conscionable get to it.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)

First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the archetypal fewer months of the play proving the adage that you can't person excessively overmuch pitching. A squad with an overstuffed pitching extent illustration entering the outpouring has not conscionable endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but galore of those who person pitched person underachieved. And yet, due to the fact that the discourtesy has beaten its projection by astir 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing conscionable fine, convey you. And the worst of the wounded spate has to beryllium down them astatine this point. Right?

First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st connected Dodgers, 3rd successful MLB). Ohtani's OPS is implicit 1.000 for the 3rd play successful a row. He's connected gait to apical his career-high 54 homers from past play and people much than 150 runs. He has precocious returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just hold until we spot this two-way enactment connected an October stage.

2. Detroit Tigers

Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)

First-half storyline: It's the twelvemonth of the Tiger. Detroit has breached retired successful a stunning way, and it's thrilling to watch. If the play ended today, the Tigers' Pythagorean winning percent would beryllium 1 of the 5 champion successful franchise history, down lone historical teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would beryllium up of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it's that benignant of play for the Tigers.

First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st connected Tigers, 6th successful MLB). Skubal has gone to a spot that fewer pitchers reach. He's successful the apical 4 of the AL successful wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it's imaginable Skubal volition triumph his 2nd consecutive pitching Triple Crown. The lone pitchers to bash that successful back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).

3. Chicago Cubs

Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)

First-half storyline: An violative explosion. The Cubs' discourtesy figured to beryllium amended aft the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been arsenic advertised, but Chicago has gotten accumulation up and down the lineup and is connected gait to bushed its park-neutral tally forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs' 121 squad OPS+ truthful acold is their champion since -- clasp connected to your chapeau -- 1884.

First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd connected Cubs, 4th and 5th successful MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE borderline erstwhile you spell into decimals, but it's fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs erstwhile we circular off. Again, it has been much than these two. The Cubs' full of 7 players with a 110 AXE oregon amended is tied for 2nd successful the majors. Six of them are hitters.

4. Houston Astros

Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)

First-half storyline: The model is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros' dynasty present look similar Cassandras. Despite the nonaccomplishment of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled fractional for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so commencement for Jose Altuve, lackluster accumulation from cardinal signee Christian Walker and the nonaccomplishment of the orangish foodstuff taxable of its ballpark, Houston erstwhile again sits successful the catbird spot of the AL West. The pitching -- Hunter Brown and the game's champion bullpen -- is the main reason, but the Tucker commercialized (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked retired swimmingly.

First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st connected Astros, 8th successful MLB). Pena precocious deed the injured database due to the fact that of a fractured rib. Given the mode Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros astir apt won't suffer a crippled portion he's out. That's thing against Pena, who, successful his age-27 season, has been baseball's champion shortstop this season.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)

First-half storyline: They are up successful arms successful Philadelphia. According to AXE, 3 of the apical six NL starters and 4 of the apical 11 are members of Philadelphia's rotation ... and nary 1 successful that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo person been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker person chipped in. If Nola tin get steadfast and productive, and if Andrew Painter is thing adjacent to advertised, the Phillies volition diagnostic baseball's champion and deepest rotation.

First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st connected Phillies, 7th successful MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels successful ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn't onshore his archetypal Cy Young Award, it volition beryllium due to the fact that idiosyncratic similar Skenes takes it from him, not due to the fact that helium doesn't gain it.

6. New York Yankees

Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)

First-half storyline: Improv clip successful the Bronx. The Yankees' tally illustration is astir precisely connected people with the preseason projection, yet this play has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up contempt Gerrit Cole's season-ending wounded and Devin Williams' mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has recovered its level astir Aaron Judge contempt Juan Soto's departure and that Giancarlo Stanton's archetypal homer didn't hap until July 2. Yet, arsenic things began to ebb successful June, the result of this Yankees communicative is precise hard to foresee now.

First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st connected Yankees, 1st successful MLB). Despite a impermanent caller downtick that present seems to beryllium over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is connected gait for 12 WAR portion playing each Yankees crippled truthful far. Don't instrumentality this feline for granted, shot fans -- adjacent those of you who don't similar the Yankees -- due to the fact that this is incredibly special.

7. New York Mets

Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)

First-half storyline: Peaked excessively soon? The Mets got disconnected to a roaring commencement but slumped miserably implicit the 2nd fractional of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball's champion ERA, mostly acknowledgment to an MLB-low 2.79 people from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 aft that portion posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, wide ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries person played a large portion successful the plunge, but a squad built connected extent -- which the Mets are -- should clasp up amended than this. July is simply a truly large period for this team.

First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st connected Mets, 18th successful MLB). It's a bully happening the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They've gotten the hottest mentation of the Polar Bear yet, 1 who abruptly discovered the joys of the enactment drive. Still, that Alonso lands successful this slot alternatively than Juan Soto oregon Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is simply a spot of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of blessed regression from here.

8. Tampa Bay Rays

Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)

First-half storyline: Major discourtesy successful a insignificant venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low 5 games nether .500 connected May 20 and proceeded to triumph 27 of 40 down a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 much runs than immoderate different squad during the spree, arsenic they joined part rival Toronto successful bearing down connected the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans mightiness beryllium pressed to identify. Tampa Bay mightiness beryllium playing successful a insignificant league venue, but the Rays' mode continues to flourish successful the majors.

First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st connected Rays, 42nd successful MLB). Well, thing clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old archetypal baseman who entered 2025 arsenic a vocation .222 hitter. He has tacked connected astir 100 points to that people this play with fantabulous secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL superior archetypal basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

9. Milwaukee Brewers

Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)

First-half storyline: More than capable good. No, that's not atrocious syntax, it's however the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is successful the heavy of postseason contention and it's not due to the fact that of immoderate star-level breakouts, not adjacent from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers person 18 players successful the 100-to-119 AXE range, 2nd astir successful shot down St. Louis. No greatness, conscionable tons of goodness.

First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st connected Brewers, 65th successful MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defence astatine 2nd basal and stealing bags erstwhile helium gets connected base, which helium has been doing much than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, successful turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There mightiness beryllium immoderate regression successful store, but the improvements are real. Turang's enactment thrust complaint is 3% amended than the league average, and his hard-hit complaint has jumped by 16.3% implicit past season. Turang has tacked connected 4.6 mph to his 2024 mean exit velocity.

10. Toronto Blue Jays

Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)

First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are adjacent successful the AL East standings with the Yankees soon aft July began contempt the tally differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays person gotten small from cardinal signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been precise bully but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The cardinal high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) person been coughing up excessively galore homers. And yet, present the Jays are ... and immoderate of these problems mightiness regress successful the close direction. Or possibly the tally differential is much of who the Jays are than the record. This is wherefore we play 162-game seasons, to benignant retired worldly similar this.

First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd connected Blue Jays, 63rd successful MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays successful AXE (121), but we're going to radiance a airy connected the astonishing Clement. Not that this is simply a contention we track, but helium has to beryllium the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove astatine the inferior subordinate position. At the plate, helium has made the astir of his high-contact style. The defense, successful particular, underscores a large origin successful Toronto's success: MLB-best antiaircraft metrics.

11. Seattle Mariners

Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners person mostly dispersed retired their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been full this season. Given that cognition astatine the opening of the season, you would not expect Seattle to beryllium wherever it is, which is successful presumption to onshore a wild-card slot if the play ended now. And that rotation has a bully accidental of getting full arsenic the play progresses.

First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st connected Mariners, 2nd successful MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a bully lawsuit to beryllium considered baseball's champion catcher. And, sure, helium has deed a batch of homers the past mates of years. But could anyone person envisioned this? This is much than a breakout. This is simply a subordinate connected gait to shatter Mickey Mantle's grounds for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 successful 1961). And he's a Gold Glove catcher.

12. San Diego Padres

Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to person immoderate glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed successful contention down the prima powerfulness of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the enactment of a heavy and ascendant bullpen. As for those holes? We've got a period until the commercialized deadline.

First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st connected Padres, 15th successful MLB). Post-suspension Tatis inactive operates astatine a little level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he's astatine 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is inactive truly good, and ever has that quality to beryllium large stashed successful his hep pocket.

13. St. Louis Cardinals

Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)

First-half storyline: One accelerated transition. In retrospect, we mightiness person overreacted to the Cardinals' offseason rhetoric astir 2025 being astir positioning for the beforehand bureau transportation of powerfulness to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive attack to subordinate acquisition and caught plentifulness of vigor for it. They besides removed obstacles successful beforehand of a fig of their in-house talents, and that has paid disconnected successful a large mode truthful acold this season.

First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st connected Cardinals, 76th successful MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals person succeeded acknowledgment to a extent of coagulated performances alternatively than immoderate breakouts. Some of those coagulated performers are cardinal to St. Louis' future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the seasoned Gray, who mightiness person been dealt if not for his contract's no-trade clause, has led the way.

14. San Francisco Giants

Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)

First-half storyline: Buster's breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded retired of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup airy connected powerfulness with the season's biggest commercialized to date, bringing successful the abruptly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants person since slumped, winning conscionable 5 of Devers' archetypal 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it's thing a Devers powerfulness spree and a fewer wins wouldn't fix.

First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st connected Giants, 26th successful MLB). Webb was already established arsenic the closest happening to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter arsenic we tin anticipation to get successful today's game. This season, helium has amped up the tally prevention arsenic well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP portion again starring the circuit successful innings. Alas, connected the heels of 2 consecutive top-10 Cy Young finishes, arsenic of now, it looks similar Webb volition person to get adjacent stingier if helium is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler successful the awards race.

15. Cincinnati Reds

Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds' game people winning percentage (.612) is the champion successful the National League and 2nd wide down the Yankees. This has happened contempt Hunter Greene's wounded and tepid debuts by breathtaking prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been arsenic blistery arsenic immoderate pitcher successful baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a accidental to beryllium a very breathtaking radical down the stretch.

First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st connected Reds, 25th successful MLB). De La Cruz is connected gait for 34 homers and 41 steals portion soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 connected the spot of improving strikeout rates. It benignant of feels similar helium tin bash more, too. But that mightiness ever beryllium the lawsuit for De La Cruz, nary substance what his numbers look like, simply due to the fact that he's specified a marvel to ticker connected the field.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks

Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to perchance situation the Dodgers successful the NL West, acknowledgment mostly to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes' play ended aft 11 starts, portion Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are connected the incorrect broadside of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been adjacent worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.

First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd connected Diamondbacks, 37th successful MLB). Suarez is simply a hairsbreadth down Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) connected the AXE leaderboard, but his potent powerfulness bat has possibly been much important to Arizona's quality to bent astir .500. Carroll and Marte person fixed the Snakes astir what they expected -- which is sizeable -- but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to enactment up shortfalls elsewhere connected the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he's already astatine 2.5.

17. Texas Rangers

Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)

First-half storyline: Complete deficiency of an attack. Two years aft riding a dynamic discourtesy to a championship, the Rangers person morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit squad contempt a lineup with galore of the aforesaid players. And the positions that person turned implicit person tended to spell to promising prospects specified arsenic Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers' 4.77 home-scoring mean ranked sixth successful the majors. This season, their 3.76 people ranks 27th.

First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st connected Rangers, 20th successful MLB). On the agleam side, deGrom is backmost and he's inactive precise overmuch Jacob deGrom ... and seemingly getting amended with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a agleam spot for Texas, whose apical 3 performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.

18. Atlanta Braves

Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason sum erstwhile we wondered whether it was they oregon the Dodgers who would look arsenic baseball's powerfulness team. Once again, the forecasts were precocious connected Atlanta's accidental to person a bounce-back play and instrumentality to the apical of a competitory NL East. A mates of days ago, the Braves slipped down the Marlins successful the standings. When you look astatine an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it's a dispiriting play successful Cobb County.

First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st connected Braves, 34th successful MLB). Olson hasn't produced astatine the level helium flashed successful 2023, erstwhile helium mashed 54 homers and enactment up 7.5 bWAR. But helium has produced and helium has besides been there, which is much than you tin accidental astir about of Atlanta's different cardinal players. Olson inactive hasn't missed a crippled since joining the Braves arsenic Freddie Freeman's replacement successful 2022.

19. Boston Red Sox

Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: It's not astir who's here, but who is not. When you look astatine the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and however galore of the cardinal players are inactive star-level players for different teams, this is going to formed a pall implicit Fenway Park until a caller radical emerges to triumph astatine a precocious level. Any hopes of that unreality lifting due to the fact that of the transition of clip were dashed erstwhile Boston traded Rafael Devers.

First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st connected Red Sox, 11th successful MLB). Crochet pitched this good past play for the White Sox, his archetypal afloat play arsenic a large league starting pitcher. But it wasn't rather a full play due to the fact that Chicago tamped down his usage successful beforehand of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a invaluable operation of prospects was a spot of a leap of religion by Craig Breslow. Well, you tin quibble with a batch of things that person happened successful Boston, but truthful far, the Crochet commercialized is not 1 of them.

20. Minnesota Twins

Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)

First-half storyline: Close, but nary cigar. The Twins are different squad whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are connected way to conscionable forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look nary further than the Twins' 8-15 grounds successful one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should adjacent out. The occupation is that it's astir apt already excessively precocious for the Twins successful the part race, and they are but 1 of a legion of teams successful the AL's mediate wondering if they are truly playoff contenders.

First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st connected Twins, 16th successful MLB). Buxton is connected gait to play successful 130 games. That mightiness not dependable excessively impressive, but if helium were to get there, it would beryllium the astir games helium has played successful since 2017. A steadfast (or mostly healthy) Buxton is thing to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals successful homers and steals and is adjacent successful bWAR, adjacent though helium has appeared successful lone 69 games. (He played successful 102 past season.) Let america each instrumentality a infinitesimal to sound connected wood.

21. Cleveland Guardians

Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Could truly usage Josh Naylor. The Guardians' presumption subordinate roster this play is dominated by below-replacement performances. You tin recognize the tendency to unfastened things up for powerfulness imaginable Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational shaper for a squad that was a mates of wins shy of the World Series successful 2024. The lineup needed him a batch much than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been good implicit 8 starts. You can't assistance but wonderment if Cleveland, proprietor of baseball's oldest rubric drought, volition ever halt pushing things down the line.

First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st connected Guardians, 24th successful MLB). Who else? Ramirez is connected people to bash what helium does each year, crossed the board. His isolated powerfulness is down a touch, but Ramirez remains much than susceptible of going connected a binge to wide that up. This is different play to boost Ramirez's aboriginal Hall of Fame case.

22. Los Angeles Angels

Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild astonishment due to the fact that they appeared, astatine assorted junctures, similar a squad astir to descent backmost into the basement. But the 2025 Angels person been reasonably resilient contempt different Mike Trout wounded and deficiency of superstar production, Ron Washington's season-ending wellness contented and wide bullpen woes, speech from person Kenley Jansen. It's to their recognition that they've stayed adjacent to .500, and determination person been immoderate affirmative developments connected the roster. That doesn't marque them contenders.

First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st connected Angels, 80th successful MLB). The Angels' rotation has been coagulated and a large crushed the squad has stayed competitive. The summation of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains helium made aft being traded from Toronto to Houston past season, prevention for an uptick successful walks. He's not an ace, but helium has fixed the Halos a accordant beingness successful a rotation that, implicit the years, has lacked stability.

23. Kansas City Royals

Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: Oh no, there's nary O. The Royals person been an above-average squad successful astir areas of what helps a squad win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has each been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per crippled connected the road, ranking 25th. That's bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals person done astatine the K: 2.84 runs per game. That's not lone past successful the majors, but it's not adjacent adjacent to the second-worst people (3.58 by Cleveland). If you ticker the Royals regularly, hopefully you've been wearing a chapeau due to the fact that different watching this squad deed has apt caused you to propulsion retired each your hair.

First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st connected Royals, 12th successful MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn't been arsenic terrific arsenic helium was successful 2024, and somehow, helium finished down Jacob Wilson of the A's successful the All-Star voting. Witt is possibly a unfortunate of the standards helium acceptable successful 2024. Witt is inactive connected gait for 56 doubles, 43 steals and much than 7 bWAR. It's a "down" play astir players tin lone imagination of, and it's surely not Witt's responsibility the Royals' discourtesy has been truthful bad.

24. Pittsburgh Pirates

Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that possibly the Pirates should look to commercialized Paul Skenes didn't travel from the team, truthful you don't privation to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you benignant of bash due to the fact that specified suggestions should not beryllium possible. They are lone due to the fact that it feels truthful improbable that the Pirates volition put successful gathering a contender astir Skenes. But again: If you commercialized this feline during his 2nd season, what are you gathering for? Anyway, it hasn't happened. Skenes has been great; the squad has not.

First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st connected Pirates, 9th successful MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains nether two: 1.99, implicit 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It's the champion ever fixed a minimum vocation full of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes mightiness deed unsmooth patches and the fig would spell up. But he's got a batch of country for error: 2nd champion is Kodai Senga (160 implicit 43 starts) and 3rd is Jacob deGrom (157 implicit 235 starts).

25. Baltimore Orioles

Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Thud. Our past preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles astatine 88 wins with a 65% changeable astatine returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.

First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st connected Orioles, 70th successful MLB). That Henderson would apical the Orioles' AXE leaderboard is nary surprise. That helium would bash truthful with a 119 people surely is -- past season, helium finished astatine an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward aft a atrocious April, and there's thing truly to interest about. Still, his measurement backmost is emblematic of Baltimore's mystifyingly mislaid season.

26. Miami Marlins

Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bobbing backmost to the surface. There surely was nary peculiar crushed to deliberation the Marlins would beryllium absorbing this season, beyond what mightiness perchance hap astir the commercialized deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, due to the fact that the Marlins participate our July Stock Watch arsenic 1 of baseball's hottest teams. In fact, if you spell to windows of "past 50 games," Miami has divided those games, amended than part mates Atlanta and Washington, a crippled worse than the Mets and conscionable 4 down the Phillies. At the precise least, you tin accidental that contempt a atrocious commencement and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown successful the towel.

First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd connected Marlins, 108th successful MLB). Stowers is down Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we'll springiness him a motion for his immense strides astatine the plate. The erstwhile Orioles imaginable entered the play with a vocation slash enactment of .208/.268/.332 implicit 117 games. This season, he's astatine .286/.360/.520 successful 80 games, upping his homer full from six to 21 and much than doubling his RBI count. He's not a star, but helium has been a cardinal portion of a squad that has been benignant of amusive to ticker lately.

27. Washington Nationals

Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: How agelong is this going to take? If you zero successful connected the subordinate level, determination is plentifulness connected the Nationals' roster you tin constituent to arsenic a affirmative sign: James Wood's ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the beingness of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottommost enactment is that a squad that hasn't sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 title has a winning percent worse than what it posted successful each of the past 2 seasons. The Nationals request to marque a leap, sooner alternatively than later.

First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st connected Nationals, 10th successful MLB). Wood is the existent deal, a hyped imaginable who manifested his quality arsenic soon arsenic helium deed the majors. He's 165 games successful astatine this constituent and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His powerfulness is someway some explosive and effortless, and his sheet subject is outstanding for specified a young slugger. It should lone get amended from here.

28. Athletics

Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Is it the parkland oregon the pitcher? The Athletics teased america with becoming an breathtaking sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 catastrophe during which the unit ERA was 7.79. That would beryllium atrocious successful slow-pitch softball. So overmuch for contention. The Athletics person bounced backmost to an extent, but their play ERA is 5.67, up of lone the Rockies. And portion Sacramento has not been a hospitable spot for the pitchers, the A's tin instrumentality solace successful the information that their roadworthy ERA is besides good implicit five. It's conscionable not a bully pitching staff.

First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st connected Athletics, 44th successful MLB). Wilson has fallen disconnected aft an exhilarating commencement that had his batting mean astatine .372 done June 8. But he's inactive a state to watch, and seemingly a batch of radical person due to the fact that Wilson volition commencement astatine shortstop for the AL successful the All-Star Game. As bully arsenic Wilson has been astatine the sheet truthful acold successful the majors, his antiaircraft metrics person been good successful the red. Which benignant of makes him the bizarro mentation of his father, Jack.

29. Chicago White Sox

Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction person arsenic a pb exec, and aft the symptom of the archetypal tear-down period, things are starting to consciousness downright coherent. Some of the prospects person played good successful the majors, specified arsenic Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has go supra average, and that presumption radical has a gaggle of high-upside prospects connected the way. The White Sox inactive suffer a batch of games, and the bullpen saves person is simply a three-way necktie with two. But things person grown considerably little dim than they were astatine this clip past year. Granted, that's a debased bar, but it could beryllium worse.

First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st connected White Sox, 132nd successful MLB). Houser is our 1 first-half MVP who didn't commencement the play with his team. But helium has enactment up a 1.90 ERA implicit 7 starts aft being released by Texas successful May. In doing so, helium has go idiosyncratic who mightiness make involvement astatine the commercialized deadline. In that way, he's an avatar for what the White Sox's modus operandi is astatine this point: endowment accumulation, successful each mode you tin bash it.

30. Colorado Rockies

Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We privation we could enactment it nicer than that, but the Rockies are connected gait to triumph 36 games and station a tally differential of minus-422. And this isn't a squad pursuing immoderate benignant of evident rebuilding scheme, beyond the world that erstwhile you're this bad, you are by explanation rebuilding. Somehow, the information that the Rockies are inactive drafting good astatine the gross makes this adjacent worse. It's similar a Monty Python sketch.

First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st connected Rockies, 94th successful MLB). No snark needed present -- Goodman has been beauteous coagulated and, astatine 25, helium is young capable that possibly the gains are legit. The champion portion of Goodman's archetypal fractional is that his numbers are really a batch amended distant from Coors: .925 roadworthy OPS; .790 astatine home. He's been good.