From Man City to Flamengo, why every last-16 team will, won't win Club World Cup

I'm not going to lie: I'm truly enjoying the FIFA Club World Cup. And that's a unusual happening to accidental considering virtually each antagonistic happening anyone has said astir the contention has been correct.

The venues person so been excessively big, making decent bully crowds look paltry successful cavernous environments, and 1 of the scourges of 21st Century business, dynamic pricing, has backfired successful plentifulness of instances.

The European teams tin assertion some fatigue and rust astatine the aforesaid time, having taken a fewer weeks disconnected aft a grueling run earlier facing teams successful midseason signifier (and fitness) from different continents. Stars similar Paris Saint-Germain's Ousmane Dembélé and Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé haven't been involved. The heat and upwind person been ridiculous, and the determination to person the astir marketable European teams playing successful the day -- premier clip successful Europe -- successful cities similar Miami and Charlotte, is questionable astatine best.

(This says thing of Juventus' White House visit, Antonio Rüdiger's claims of racist abuse and each the different undercurrents weighing down virtually each pastime oregon facet of nine astatine the moment.)

However, rust, weather, stadium size, satellite geopolitics ... nary of that is the responsibility of the South American teams that person perfectly travel to play implicit the past mates of weeks. Or the fanbases that person followed them astir this sweltering country. Or the marquee names (Manchester City's Erling Haaland, Inter Miami's Lionel Messi, Bayern Munich's Michael Olise and Kingsley Coman, Juventus' Randal Kolo Muani), acquainted aged stars (Benfica's Ángel Di María and Nicolás Otamendi, River Plate's Marcos Acuña) oregon breathtaking lesser-knowns (Mamelodi Sundowns' Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Inter Miami's Oscar Ustari, Botafogo's Alexander Barboza) who person shone frankincense far.

We've seen PSG and Chelsea autumn to South American counterparts (Botafogo and Flamengo). We've seen Inter Miami instrumentality down a squad (Porto) that was successful the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds past year. We've seen immoderate electrical environments for matches similar Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors, and we saw nonsense of the champion benignant arsenic 8 goals were scored successful the 2nd fractional of Group A's last 2 matches (three successful Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras, 5 successful Al Ahly's 4-4 gully with Porto) and aft some teetering connected the brink of elimination, some Palmeiras and Inter Miami advanced.

And, we're lone getting started. As of Wednesday morning, 9 of 16 spots successful the knockout rounds person been secured. So, arsenic teams proceed to qualify, let's instrumentality a look astatine each remaining contender and wherefore they mightiness oregon mightiness not assistance the strange, aureate Club World Cup trophy successful a fewer much weeks.

Editor's Note: This record volition beryllium updated connected Thursday and Friday arsenic the last 4 groups (E, F, G and H) reason and the remaining circular of 16 teams are confirmed.

Bayern Munich

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +550 (equivalent to 15.4%) | Title odds, per Opta: 12.0%
How they got here: def. Auckland City (10-0), def. Boca Juniors (2-1), mislaid to Benfica (1-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Flamengo (June 29, 4 p.m. ET, Miami)

Why they volition triumph it all: They instrumentality each the shots. No substance the manager, nary substance the season, Bayern suffocate overwhelmed opponents. In the Champions League past season, they were 2nd successful shots per possession and archetypal successful shots allowed per possession. In the Bundesliga, they were archetypal successful some categories. They tilt the pitch, they counter-press, and they support the shot adjacent your extremity and acold distant from theirs.

Three matches in, they're doing the aforesaid happening successful this competition: They're 4th successful shots per possession and archetypal successful shots allowed. Granted, they've benefited from playing the weakest squad successful the contention (Auckland City, whom they outshot, 31-1). But successful much cautious and carnal matches against Boca Juniors and Benfica, they inactive attempted doubly the shots and produced much than 3 times the xG. They completed 351 passes successful the attacking 3rd against Boca and Benfica portion allowing conscionable 48 specified completions.

Manager Vincent Kompany attempted to remainder cardinal players successful scorching vigor against Benfica -- Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Joshua Kimmich and Jonathan Tah each lone played the 2nd fractional -- and it backfired erstwhile they fell down aboriginal and Benfica goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin someway made it clasp up. But erstwhile the starters are connected the pitch, Bayern is playing for keeps.

Why they won't: We don't cognize that their aged antiaircraft weaknesses are fixed yet. The high-risk shot domination that Bayern bask usually comes with occasional antiaircraft breakdowns. In six draws and losses successful past year's Champions League, they inactive dominated successful changeable quantity, but looking specifically astatine high-quality shots (worth 0.2 xG oregon more), they allowed arsenic galore arsenic they attempted.

When Boca Juniors tied Bayern successful the 2nd fractional successful Miami past Friday, it came connected a counterattack that produced a peculiarly high-quality changeable (0.53 xG). Granted, it was a superb idiosyncratic effort from Miguel Merentiel, but it was the nonstop spirit of extremity Bayern thin to allow.

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Müller connected upwind astatine CWC: We're professionals, nary excuses

Bayern Munich's Thomas Müller says astatine 36-years-old if helium tin play successful the blistery upwind astatine the Club satellite Cup, past "everybody should bash it."

Benfica

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +3300 | Title odds, per Opta: 4.9%
How they got here: drew with Boca Juniors (2-2), def. Auckland City (6-0), def. Bayern (1-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Chelsea (June 28, 4 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they volition triumph it all: Angel Di Maria and Nicolas Otamendi person turned backmost the clock. Or I should say, they've continued to bash so. The club's worldly 37-year-olds played each but 16 of Benfica's minutes successful the radical stage. Di Maria scored 3 goals (tied for astir successful the contention arsenic of Tuesday afternoon) and ranks archetypal connected the squad successful chances created, expected assists from completed passes, shots connected extremity and adjacent full touches. He's relentless. And did I mention: he's 37.

Otamendi, meanwhile, stifled Bayern's Harry Kane for a fractional and has been 1 of the superior reasons wherefore Benfica participate the knockout signifier having not allowed a extremity for 243 minutes. He's archetypal connected the squad successful antiaircraft interventions, he's won 81% of his duels, and ohio yea -- he's besides archetypal connected the squad successful progressive carries and progressive passes.

Goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin has been fantastic, too, and players similar attacker Vangelis Pavlidis and antiaircraft midfielder Leandro Barreiro person been strong. But 2 arrogant aged warhorses pb this arrogant aged nine into the knockouts.

Why they won't: Their grounds against bully teams ... isn't good. In the past 12 months, Benfica person played 10 matches against teams successful the apical 20 of the Opta powerfulness rankings. They mislaid six, drew 2 and won lone 2 - and 1 of the 2 came connected Tuesday against a Bayern squad that tried to remainder rather a fewer starters (and inactive generated acold much opportunities) - with 2 draws and six losses. They scored much than 1 extremity conscionable twice. This is simply a astir upset-proof outfit, but they aren't going to beryllium favored much, if astatine all, moving forward.

Botafogo

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +3300 (equivalent to 2.9%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.4%
How they got here: def. Seattle Sounders (2-1), def. PSG (1-0), mislaid to Atletico Madrid (0-1)
Round-of-16 opponent: Palmeiras (June 28, noon ET, Philadelphia)

Why they volition triumph it all: They sacrifice their bodies. Botafogo's roadworthy to the circular of 16 was laborious. They attempted 23 shots to opponents' 62. They possessed the shot conscionable 34.8% of the clip -- nary 1 other nether 35% has averaged adjacent 1.0 points per game. But Fogo averaged 2.0 points per crippled and became the archetypal squad to bushed PSG since the Parisiens became European champions. And they did it with axenic effort.

Botafogo person blocked 36% of opponents' shots (fifth-most successful the competition), and they've forced opponents to effort 83% of their shots with astatine slightest 2 defenders betwixt changeable and extremity (11th). They attempted 12.3 counters per crippled (11th), too, scoring the lone extremity of the lucifer against PSG from a counter. Their onslaught is beauteous one-dimensional, but Igor Jesus has been clinical: He scored the game-winner successful some wins, and from shots worthy a combined 0.2 xG.

They protected that pb against PSG for 54 minutes with nary breakdown, and knowing they would beforehand arsenic agelong arsenic they didn't suffer by 3 goals oregon much against Atletico Madrid, they made Atleti enactment for 87 minutes to people conscionable one. This is immoderate high-effort, high-degree-of-difficulty stuff.

Why they won't: The deity of xG volition yet crook connected you. Their extremity differential: +1. Their xG differential: -4.2. They've allowed conscionable 2 goals from shots worthy 6.2 xG. They are playing inspired and aggravated ball, and it is simply a delight to watch, but ... you aren't going to triumph 4 much matches portion giving opponents truthful galore much high-quality opportunities.

Chelsea

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Maresca 'proud' of Chelsea making it to past 16 of CWC

Enzo Maresca speaks connected Chelsea making it to the past 16 of the Club World Cup, arsenic good arsenic however Liam Delap has settled into the Chelsea squad.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +1200 (equivalent to 7.7%) | Title odds, per Opta: 11.0%
How they got here: def. LAFC (2-0), mislaid to Flamengo (1-3), def. Esperance (3-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Benfica (June 28, 4 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they volition triumph it all: Depth and a beardown possession game. Manager Enzo Maresca is utilized to dealing with a bloated squad and successful this tournament, with its oppressive weather, bloat is simply a bully thing. He's already played 25 antithetic guys, with lone close backmost Malo Gusto topping 195 minutes (star Cole Palmer has lone had to play 166). And contempt the dense rotation, Chelsea looked beardown for fundamentally 5 of six halves. They wilted precocious against Flamengo, but responded to suffice easily.

No substance who's been playing, Chelsea person checked each the due possession boxes: They're sixth successful possession complaint (63.0%), sixth successful passes per possession (9.2), 4th successful progressive carries (90.3 per game) and 4th successful offsides drawn (3.0 per game), and each with the third-fewest possessions per crippled (69.0). They'll person to bushed Benfica without the suspended Nicolas Jackson, which isn't optimal, but this is simply a comparatively rested squad playing the benignant of shot it wants to play.

Why they won't: Cole Palmer is the incorrect benignant of acold (and the glitches stay alarming). You astir apt request your champion subordinate to play good to triumph 4 knockout rounds, and Palmer has been an implicit non-factor successful his 2 appearances frankincense far. In fact, going each the mode backmost to Jan. 20, he's played successful 26 matches for nine and state and has managed conscionable 1 extremity with 5 assists. Two of those assists did travel successful the Conference League last against Real Betis, but he's attempted 75 shots worthy 7.6 xG successful this lengthy span and enactment conscionable 1 successful the net. That's 5 steps beyond "finishing funk."

Add Palmer's struggles to a defence that glitched retired for a spot against Flamengo (and had a beauteous atrocious wont of allowing high-quality changeable attempts portion nursing leads successful the Premier League), and you don't person the astir unchangeable of contenders.

Flamengo

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +2200 (equivalent to 4.3%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
How they got here: def. Esperance (2-0), def. Chelsea (3-1), drew with LAFC (1-1)
Round-of-16 opponent: Bayern Munich (June 29, 4 p.m. ET, Miami)

Why they volition triumph it all: They instrumentality each the bully shots. Before manager Filipe Luís flipped their lineup rather a spot for their last match, having already clinched archetypal successful Group D, Flamengo allowed 1 extremity successful 2 matches, and it was triggered by a bid of funky deflections. Meanwhile, they attempted 7 shots worthy astatine slightest 0.2 xG and allowed one. It's hard to suffer erstwhile you're taking each the bully shots.

Brazilian teams person been fantabulous successful this competition, and Flamengo are Brazil's champion team. They play the sturdy, box-filling defence we've seen from astir of the South American teams successful the Club World Cup, but they don't outpouring guardant into counterattacks -- instead, they play sound, diligent possession ball. They support the tempo ultra-slow, and they whittle distant until they make thing of precocious quality.

Leo Pereira leads a large defense, Giorgian de Arrascaeta (nine goals and 4 assists successful 9 Serie A matches) and Gonzalo Plata (two assists versus Chelsea) trigger a divers attack, and present erstwhile Chelsea and Arsenal prima midfielder Jorginho is linking the 2 together.

Why they won't: A dilatory crippled doesn't enactment arsenic good if you're trailing. Granted, they charged backmost from a 1-0 shortage to wallop Chelsea, but if they are to marque a heavy tally successful this tournament, they are lone going to look amended and amended opponents, and they'll astir apt person to travel from down again. That's theoretically a batch harder to bash erstwhile you play astatine specified a languid gait and your full crippled is based astir patience. They've trailed for lone 48 possessions successful league play this season, excessively -- we don't truly cognize however bully their Plan B is due to the fact that they've ne'er had to amusement it.

Inter Miami

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +5000 (equivalent to 2.0%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.4%
How they got here: drew with Al Ahly (0-0), def. Porto (2-1), drew with Palmeiras (2-2)
Round-of-16 opponent: Paris Saint-Germain (June 29, noon ET, Atlanta)

Why they volition triumph it all: Messi magic. As of Tuesday, determination person been 4 goals from nonstop escaped kicks successful the Club World Cup. They had an mean pre-shot xG of astir 0.07. But Leo Messi's, from 23 meters retired successful the 2nd fractional against Porto, felt similar 1.00. The assemblage buzzed arsenic Messi was lining it up. Everyone expected it to spell in, and past it went in.

EMBED: https://youtube.com/shorts/MCwgW04KWXs?si=sbqvrg9jskRLczIM

Per the Opta powerfulness rankings, Inter Miami was the No. 4 squad successful Group A heading into the tournament, and it appeared that a Messi squad was primed to exit a tourney successful the radical signifier for the archetypal clip ever. But his escaped footwear teed up an upset of Porto, and his enactment further from the extremity against Palmeiras -- helium made 12 progressive carries, won 5 of 7 1v1s and altered the defense's halfway of gravity for 90 minutes. Inter overcame a rampant tally of cramping to gully with Palmeiras and advance.

Beating PSG is astir apt excessively overmuch to ask, but each it mightiness instrumentality is simply a mates of moments of magic from a feline inactive susceptible of generating them.

Why they won't: Okay, fine, beating PSG is astir decidedly excessively overmuch to ask. It volition instrumentality the aforementioned magic, positive further strain from a defence that has maxed itself retired successful presumption of some accomplishment and effort levels. Opta's powerfulness rankings springiness Inter lone a 16.4% accidental of advancing and adjacent successful a crippled based truthful heavy successful randomness, that feels incredibly optimistic.

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Inter Miami fans observe progression to Club World Cup knockouts

Inter Miami fans observe aft their gully with Palmeiras to advancement to the Club World Cup knockouts.

Juventus

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +1800 (equivalent to 5.3%) | Title odds, per Opta: 4.6%
How they got here: def. Al-Ain (5-0), def. Wydad Casablanca (4-1)
Round-of-16 opponent: Someone from Group H (either Real Madrid, RB Salzburg oregon Al Hilal, determination and clip TBD)

Why they volition triumph it all: They're hustling. Igor Tudor took implicit arsenic manager connected March 23 and safely steered Juve to a fourth-place decorativeness with conscionable 1 nonaccomplishment successful 9 league matches. They created a forcefield astir their antiaircraft container and hustled their butts off, allowing fewer passes per antiaircraft action, blocking tons of shots and making astir of the shot recoveries.

Juve are hustling said butts disconnected appropriately successful the U.S., too. Even portion nursing mostly comfy leads that would theoretically let them to easiness disconnected the throttle, they're 3rd successful passes allowed per antiaircraft enactment (8.5) and sixth successful shot recoveries per lucifer (44.0). They did let a extremity from a careless breakdown against Wydad Casablanca, but it's astir the lone breakdown they've suffered. Meanwhile, the attacking trio of Randal Kolo Muani, Kenan Yildiz and Francisco Conceição (combined: 7 goals, 1 assist, 10 chances created) has been incredibly sharp.

Juve look to beryllium taking this contention precise seriously.

Why they won't: Hustling isn't capable against bully teams. In Tudor's 9 league matches, Juve played 3 coagulated teams (Bologna, Lazio and Roma) and drew 1-1 with each three. Combined xG differential successful those 3 matches: minus-0.8. In attack, they couldn't number connected either unsafe counters oregon sturdy buildup play, and they got pinned successful a spot much defensively. They weren't dominated by immoderate means, but they didn't make galore advantages.

Starting with Thursday's lucifer against Manchester City, the contention ramps up importantly for Juve. High effort levels person made them conscionable astir upset-proof, but they aren't going to beryllium favored successful galore matches moving forward.

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Has the banal of MLS improved since the Club World Cup?

Gab Marcotti and Herculez Gomez statement whether the Club World Cup has changed the presumption connected MLS.

Manchester City

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +450 (equivalent to 18.2%) | Title odds, per Opta: 18.6%
How they got here: def. Wydad Casablanca (2-0), def. Al-Ain (6-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Someone from Group H (either Real Madrid, RB Salzburg oregon Al Hilal)

Why they volition triumph it all: They're Manchester City. While the qualification criteria for this contention was alternatively murky, the wide thought is that the teams successful this tourney accomplished thing peculiarly noteworthy betwixt 2021-24. City were the champion squad successful the satellite for a ample percent of that span. They only finished 3rd successful the Premier League and reached the FA Cup last this year, which by City standards was apocalyptic, but some the ceiling and level stay ridiculously high.

In 2 Club World Cup matches, Pep Guardiola has played 25 antithetic guys and gotten goals from 7 antithetic players, and City are dominating possession, tilting the transportation and doing each the things we expect City to do.

Why they won't: We don't cognize what we request to cognize astir the defence yet. Out of 36 Champions League teams this past season, City ranked 32nd successful shots allowed per possession (0.15), 32nd successful shot recoveries per crippled (37.9) and 36th successful duel attempts; the onslaught was good and hogged the shot arsenic good arsenic expected, but without a steadfast Rodri, the backmost fractional of the City lineup was terribly passive.

Three January antiaircraft acquisitions (defensive midfielder Nico Gonzalez, close backmost Abdukodir Khusanov and center-back Vitor Reis) and a June acquisition (left backmost Rayan Aït-Nouri) are among the galore guys who person seen the transportation -- arsenic is Rodri himself -- but Guardiola is inactive experimenting, and the level of contention is astir to ramp up quickly. They haven't allowed a extremity yet, but Wydad Casablanca managed 12 changeable attempts, and portion Al-Ain managed lone five, 3 were worthy astatine slightest 0.1 xG. Results are inconclusive frankincense far.

Palmeiras

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +2000 (equivalent to 4.8%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.9%
How they got here: drew with Porto (0-0), def. Al Ahly (2-0), drew with Inter Miami (2-2)
Round-of-16 opponent: Botafogo (June 28, noon ET, Philadelphia)

Why they volition triumph it all: They deterioration opponents down. Winners of 11 trophies successful the 2020s, Palmeiras astir took down Chelsea successful the 2021 Club World Cup final. Despite sending loads of high-level endowment to Europe successful that span, nary Brazilian squad feels much astatine location connected a big, pressure-packed stage, and they showed it by winning Group A with a tally of second-half brilliance.

This is simply a beauteous retrograde attack: Palmeiras are 3rd successful the contention successful transverse attempts (29.0 per match), 2nd successful percent of shots from headers (28.0%) and 4th successful nonstop attacks (sequences starting successful the antiaircraft fractional and producing a changeable wrong 20 seconds). But they're inactive attempting much shots per possession than anyone not named Bayern (0.22), and they're allowing conscionable 0.09 per possession (eighth). In sticky, blistery conditions, they support the crippled wide unfastened and hold for you to wilt. It's working.

Why they won't: Shot quality. Attempting astir 2.5 times much shots than your hostile volition mostly enactment retired beauteous good for you, but lone 8 of their 50 changeable attempts person been worthy 0.2 xG oregon more, and they're 20th successful the contention successful xG per changeable (0.14). After blowing a mates of aureate opportunities successful the opener against Porto, Chelsea-bound Estevao's changeable prime has regressed quickly, and Palmeiras person turned shots worthy 5.3 xG into lone 3 goals. (They scored a 4th connected an ain goal.)

If you aren't taking large shots and aren't maximizing the ones you take, you aren't winning 4 knockout-round matches.

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Could the vigor of a U.S. summertime spoil the World Cup successful 2026?

Gab Marcotti and Craig Burley explicate the conflict to equilibrium making Club World Cup games disposable for the planetary assemblage with making it harmless for the players.

Paris Saint-Germain

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +275 (equivalent to 26.7%) | Title odds, per Opta: 21.1%
How they got here: def. Atletico Madrid (4-0), mislaid to Botafogo (1-0), def. Seattle Sounders (2-0)
Round-of-16 opponent: Inter Miami (June 29, noon ET, Atlanta)

Why they volition triumph it all: They're the champion squad successful the world. They were placed successful a challenging group, Ballon d'Or contender Ousmane Dembele is nursing a hamstring issue, and neither Désiré Doué nor Bradley Barcola person accomplished overmuch truthful far. And yet, this heavy and energetic squad is doing each the things a superb Luis Enrique squad is expected to bash -- 73.4% possession complaint (first successful the competition), 11.3 passes per possession (first), 104.3 progressive passes per crippled (first) and, connected the pressing side, conscionable 6.9 passes allowed per antiaircraft enactment (first).

They inactive person the champion fullback duo successful the crippled with Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia remains a nonstop menace connected the near wing, Fabián Ruiz and Vitinha person been astir flawless successful midfield, and six antithetic players person enactment the shot successful the net. Even with the nonaccomplishment to Botafogo, the champion squad successful the satellite for the past six months has made it to the knockout rounds with minimal stress.

Why they won't: They request to dial backmost in. The blowout triumph implicit Atletico Madrid was a connection of intent to unfastened their tournament, but their absorption has waned since then.

They so gave up a counterattacking extremity to Botafogo and ne'er created a peculiarly high-quality accidental successful the hr that followed. And successful what turned retired to beryllium a must-win lucifer against Seattle, they were dilatory retired of the gate, allowing a high-quality accidental to Jesús Ferreira successful the 19th infinitesimal and really losing the first-half xG battle. They dominated the 2nd fractional and were ne'er successful trouble, but aft that fifth-gear showing they've cruised on successful second, and it tin beryllium hard to re-establish your champion signifier erstwhile you've mislaid it.