Experts' picks, best bets: Who should bettors back at UFC 317?

The UFC caps disconnected its International Fight Week with UFC 317 astatine T-Mobile Arena successful Las Vegas connected Saturday nighttime (10 ET connected ESPN+ PPV; prelims astatine 8 ET connected ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+; aboriginal prelims astatine 6:30 ET connected ESPN+/Disney+).

The main lawsuit volition diagnostic erstwhile featherweight champion Ilia Topuria taking connected erstwhile lightweight titleholder Charles Oliveira for the 155-pound loop precocious vacated by Islam Makhachev. Topuria is ESPN's No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter, portion Oliveira is ESPN's second-ranked lightweight.

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja returns to the Octagon seeking his 4th consecutive men's flyweight rubric defence against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja, ranked No. 7 successful ESPN's P4P rankings, has not mislaid since July 2020. Kara-France, No. 4 successful ESPN's flyweight rankings, earned a rubric changeable pursuing an awesome first-round knockout triumph implicit Steve Erceg astatine UFC 305 this past August.

On Friday, the PFL hosts the past lawsuit of its 2025 semifinals, featuring the middleweight, airy heavyweight and heavyweight divisions.

Fabian Edwards volition quadrate disconnected with Josh Silveira successful the main event. Also connected the main card, erstwhile Bellator bantamweight champions Sergio Pettis and Raufeon Stots spell caput to head.

A UFC Hall of Famer, MMA coach, ESPN MMA analysts and commentators springiness their UFC rubric combat predictions. ESPN betting adept Ian Parker adds penetration and investigation connected intriguing bets from some combat cards.

Lightweight championship

Everything I look astatine successful this matchup tells maine to prime Ilia. He's a amended method boxer. Against Josh Emmett successful 2023, helium showed helium was defensively responsible, adjacent though helium had nary occupation lasting successful the pocket. Most radical who debar taking a large changeable from Emmett bash it by refusing to prosecute with him and backing away. Ilia is truthful technically sound, which is highly impressive. And if helium gets connected apical of Charles connected the ground, I deliberation he'll bash superior damage. -- Anthony Smith

I deliberation it's going to beryllium beauteous one-sided. I deliberation Ilia volition wounded him successful the archetypal circular and person him hesitant the remainder of the fight. Ilia volition commencement picking Charles isolated and enactment him distant successful the 3rd round. -- Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds close arsenic of June 26. For the astir up-to-date odds, sojourn ESPN BET.

Parker: Topuria to triumph by TKO/KO; implicit 1.5 rounds. Topuria makes the leap up from featherweight to lightweight against Oliveira, hoping to seizure his 2nd championship. The oddsmakers look to expect Topuria (-525) to triumph easily. That enactment is mode excessively wide for me, considering Topuria lone has 1 UFC combat astatine lightweight, and though helium won, helium was dropped successful the archetypal circular by Jai Herbert successful July 2021. This combat volition beryllium much competitory than the likelihood suggest, truthful if you instrumentality Topuria, the KO/TKO prop is the mode to go. Another enactment that caught my oculus is the implicit 1.5 rounds. Oliveira hasn't been knocked retired since 2017 and volition person the scope to support region betwixt them if helium chooses to. So if a decorativeness happens, I spot it playing retired akin to the mode Topuria finished Max Holloway successful Round 3 of their UFC 308 featherweight rubric fight.

Men's flyweight championship

I spot this 1 arsenic beauteous one-sided, too. Ultimately, Kai won't beryllium capable to halt the takedown and that's the quality successful this fight. Once Pantoja has him connected the mat, he'll instrumentality the backmost and choke him retired earlier the 3rd circular starts. -- Din Thomas

Kara-France riding an awesome streak close now. Pantoja doesn't adjacent region good sometimes. He's a small clumsy doing it, and Kara-France has looked truly cleanable successful his striking. His evading and countering look overmuch better, and his footwork looks a batch better. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Parker: Pantoja to triumph (-250). As bully a striker and arsenic overmuch knockout powerfulness arsenic Kara-France has shown, I inactive don't expect it to beryllium capable to bushed the champion. Pantoja tin lucifer the powerfulness of Kara-France and has the durability to past immoderate large shots that travel his way. The biggest disparity wide is the crushed crippled of Pantoja. Time and clip again, Pantoja has been capable to dictate fights by advancing with strikes to acceptable up his world-class jiu-jitsu, and I expect him to grapple his mode to different palmy rubric defence against Kara-France.

Parker's champion bets connected the remainder of the card

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Felipe Lima defeats Muhammad Naimov via submission successful Round 3

Felipe Lima makes his UFC debut and defeats Muhammad Naimov with a rear-naked choke successful Round 3.

Men's bantamweight: Felipe Lima vs Payton Talbott

Lima to triumph (-195). Talbott was dominated from commencement to decorativeness by Raoni Barcelos successful his past fight. He was the biggest betting favourite connected the card, but his mediocre takedown defence was exposed, and present helium returns against different highly touted imaginable who is simply a stylistic nightmare for him. On the feet, Lima throws much measurement than Talbott and has shown bully durability frankincense far. As agelong arsenic helium tin debar Talbott's power, look for Lima to usage his wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to get the triumph here.

Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues to triumph (-220). More than a twelvemonth aft his determination triumph implicit Joe Pyfer successful February 2024, Hermansson returns against Rodrigues, the betting favorite, adjacent though helium is coming disconnected a nonaccomplishment to Jared Cannonier successful his archetypal main event. I similar Rodrigues successful this matchup due to the fact that helium is the amended striker and carries tremendous knockout power. Hermansson usually has the precocious manus successful grappling, but successful this matchup, Rodrigues is the amended jiu-jitsu practitioner. Look for Rodrigues to support this combat lasting and get backmost connected the winning track.

Parker's champion bets for the PFL semifinals

Middleweight: Fabian Edwards vs. Josh Silveira

Over 2.5 rounds. Edwards fto the MMA satellite cognize that helium is inactive amongst the champion middleweights successful the PFL with his knockout triumph implicit Impa Kasanganay successful the archetypal round. He present takes connected PFL mainstay Silveira, who is arsenic durable a combatant arsenic it gets. This is an absorbing combat due to the fact that Edwards is simply a -550 favorite, but Silveira has the borderline successful wrestling and crushed crippled if helium tin get the combat there. The stake present is for the combat to spell implicit 2.5 rounds oregon -- for a amended terms -- the distance, due to the fact that it is intolerable to enactment Silveira away. Four of Silveira's past 5 fights person gone to decision, arsenic person 2 of Edwards' past four. I expect a pugnacious combat from doorbell to bell.

Middleweight: Dalton Rosta vs. Aaron Jeffery

Rosta to triumph (-140). Rosta looked flawless successful his combat against Sadibou Sy successful the archetypal round, and present gets a rematch against the 1 combatant who has beaten him successful his nonrecreational career. Jeffery is simply a pugnacious fighter, but his past combat against Murad Ramazanov showed precise small improvement to his game. If helium fights the aforesaid mode against Rosta, he's successful for a agelong night. If Rosta tin enactment disconnected the obstruction and disconnected his back, helium volition win.

Light heavyweight: Rafael Xavier vs Karl Albrektsson

Xavier to triumph (-170). Albrektsson is coming disconnected a brutal TKO nonaccomplishment lone six weeks ago, his 2nd TKO nonaccomplishment successful a row. He takes connected Xavier next, who has a 69% KO/TKO complaint and narrowly mislaid to Simeon Powell successful his past fight. Unless Albrektsson takes down Xavier and holds him there, I expect Xavier to person a showcase moment.