Do Not Draft list: McCaffrey, Andrews among players being overvalued

Everyone knows what talented San Francisco 49ers moving backmost Christian McCaffrey tin execute statistically erstwhile helium is afloat healthy. McCaffrey dominated fantasy football during the 2019 season, and helium did it again successful 2023 successful his archetypal afloat run with the 49ers, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns, moving phantasy managers to disregard the all-or-nothing quality of relying connected him. Few bothered to adjacent statement different options with the apical prime successful 2024 drafts. It was obvious.

It is hardly truthful evident what to bash with McCaffrey now. Overeager phantasy managers tin person themselves of virtually anything, and galore presumption McCaffrey arsenic 1 of the apical PPR picks again, resulting successful a first-round ADP. Why can't helium soar past 300 PPR points again? Well, with bully luck successful the wellness department, possibly McCaffrey will, but aft a nightmare play successful which fantasy's apical prime (and possibly the 49ers) misled everyone astir his mysterious little limb malady and past we watched him debut successful Week 10 and sputter done 4 disappointing on-field weeks, helium is acold from trustworthy.

Welcome to different play of the often misunderstood Do Not Draft list, wherever the intent is to sermon the players whose inherent draught time value mightiness not lucifer up with however immoderate of america presumption the players statistically. That's truly each this is. Is determination a close draught spot oregon wage headdress fig successful which to unafraid McCaffrey and each his chaotic upside to your teams? Of people determination is, but for maine it definite is not successful the apical 10 of drafts erstwhile determination are truthful galore safe, reliable wide receivers and adjacent a fewer moving backs I prefer. Risk versus reward is simply a existent happening successful phantasy football, but Round 1 definite is simply a unsafe spot to enactment connected it.

This wasn't the archetypal clip McCaffrey, present 29 years old, demoralized truthful galore phantasy managers, and possibly adjacent his ain franchise. The prima of 2019 was the bust of the 2020 season. He played successful lone 10 games over 2 seasons, earlier the Carolina Panthers traded him to the 49ers midway done 2022. McCaffrey looked rejuvenated and trustworthy. He did not look rejuvenated oregon trustworthy successful 2024. Guessing however helium volition execute -- and however often -- is simply a large portion of the problem. We don't person to conjecture with astir different players successful the archetypal 2 rounds. Why instrumentality that accidental here?

Odds are I volition slice each of the top-scoring PPR moving backs from the past 2 seasons, though their situations are different. Philadelphia Eagles prima Saquon Barkley is definite to instrumentality a statistical measurement backmost overall, though helium should stay productive. Just not as productive arsenic past play because, c'mon, helium can't bash all that again. Be realistic, people. There is nary mode Barkley is handling 378 touches again (a staggering 482 erstwhile including the postseason) this season, oregon possibly ever. It's besides worthy noting helium has missed astatine slightest 3 games successful 4 of his past six seasons, truthful anticipating missed clip should beryllium portion of the calculus for phantasy managers. The Eagles are analytically inclined. They cognize however injuries tin derail a season, and really, this franchise is playing for January, anyway.

I volition not prime Barkley aboriginal successful the archetypal circular due to the fact that I americium loading up connected the harmless wide receivers there. Still, arsenic with McCaffrey, we person seen what is possible, and it is awesome. There is ample humanities grounds present that hefty workload results successful wounded and/or large diminution successful show the adjacent season, and some McCaffrey and Barkley person a past of missing games. In fact, it feels applicable to constituent retired these fellows have combined for lone six vocation top-5 finishes successful PPR phantasy scoring. Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry has done this 5 of the past six seasons, though helium is going aboriginal successful drafts.

Back to Barkley: Since 2000, determination person been 12 instances of a moving backmost logging 400 carries successful a play (including playoffs), and none of them finished the adjacent play arsenic a top-10 RB. Not 1 was close. Eight players rushed for 2,000 yards successful a play earlier Barkley. None of them adjacent reached 1,500 yards the adjacent season. The Super Bowl champions person options, including a QB who scores astir each the goal-line touchdowns. Barkley is safer than McCaffrey, much apt to supply top-5 RB numbers with thing similar 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns implicit 14 games. McCaffrey is the greater risk. How overmuch hazard are you chill with?

Here are different players I support ignoring successful myriad -- and I mean myriad -- mock drafts and existent leagues this summer. The Do Not Draft database is astir fading players astatine their existent popularity, oregon ADP. Unless immoderate unfavorable wellness quality is released, McCaffrey isn't falling successful drafts anytime soon. That mightiness beryllium the lawsuit with astir of the players connected this list. Study ADP, not lone astatine ESPN but successful different places, and marque your ain decisions connected whom to roster and whom to fto idiosyncratic other interest about.

Quarterbacks

• In what has go an yearly tradition, I'll commencement by highlighting the archetypal quarterbacks disconnected the draught board, due to the fact that nether the existent rules (starting lone 1 QB) they are not beardown values successful the archetypal fewer rounds. This hardly means Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson volition conflict this season. They should beryllium great. You conscionable mightiness request the moving backmost oregon wide receiver you could take alternatively successful the archetypal fewer rounds more. There aren't capable of the emblematic "flex" options to spell around. Supply versus request matters, truthful walk up Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow aboriginal successful drafts, too. Give maine a backmost (or two) aft Round 10.

• Even aft Round 10 oregon so, determination are immoderate quarterbacks who are not worthy it. Start with the beleaguered Anthony Richardson Sr. If you deliberation this is the magic twelvemonth erstwhile helium yet stays steadfast and plays astatine a consistently precocious level, spell for it. I bash not judge helium will. Daniel Jones astir apt plays much than Richardson. If you judge the Green Bay Packers privation Jordan Love and his propensity for making mistakes throwing the shot 500-plus times again, arsenic helium did successful 2023, spell for it. I bash not believe. And congrats to caller Seattle Seahawks starter Sam Darnold for turning his stunning 2024 run with the Vikings into this deal, but I don't spot a repeat. Ignore the eerily connected Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, too. They aren't aging similar Tom Brady did. Then again, who does?

Running backs

• Here is simply a question for you: One existent New York Jets subordinate boasts a 1,000-yard rushing season. Who is it? Nope, it is not Breece Hall. It is caller QB Justin Fields, for the 2022 Chicago Bears! If you inquire which 1 of them is much apt to surpass this notable, but eminently reachable, people for a moving backmost successful 2025, I person doubts for both, but lone 1 of them is going successful the 4th round. That's a occupation for Hall, who is 2 years removed from his ACL country but is coming disconnected an inefficient 2024 play and apt to spot little measurement moving forward, notably successful the passing game. Hall has value, but helium was outscored connected a per-game PPR ground by respective options who spell a circular oregon much aboriginal successful ADP (Chuba Hubbard, James Conner, David Montgomery), and I don't spot that changing.

• Other than Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty, who seems to beryllium a fastener for measurement and precocious performance, I person been fading different first-year moving backs astatine their existent ADPs. Everyone loves the rookies due to the fact that they haven't failed yet, but we indispensable question harmless pathways to playing clip for Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson and TreVeyon Henderson. It's each guesswork, and evidently it depends connected ADP. Hampton and Harvey look awfully fashionable successful drafts. Veteran coaches similar to thin on, well, veterans. Volume doesn't look to beryllium an contented with Hubbard, Conner, Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and different veterans. Call 'em boring, unexciting picks, but successful astir cases, you cognize what you are getting.

• I liked Javonte Williams erstwhile helium came retired of North Carolina and handled 246 touches arsenic a Denver Broncos rookie. Then came the genu injury. Williams mightiness not beryllium connected this database due to the fact that helium goes precocious capable successful drafts that 1 mightiness arsenic good instrumentality a chance, but determination mightiness not beryllium overmuch phantasy upside with immoderate Dallas RB. Frankly, we could accidental that astir 2 different NFC East teams arsenic well, since the New York Giants and Washington Commanders volition person timeshares, limiting the upside and consistency for each of Brian Robinson Jr., pass-catching Austin Ekeler, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and rookie Cam Skattebo. I'm not excessively funny successful the Jacksonville Jaguars' moving backs, either.

Wide receivers

• I deliberation everyone is overrating the Kansas City Chiefs' receiving corps of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and, to a lesser degree, Hollywood Brown. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes didn't autumn abbreviated of 300 phantasy points the past 2 seasons due to the fact that his young wide receivers underachieved oregon were not available. It wasn't astir aging TE Travis Kelce (who oddly has go a draft-day bargain this season), either. Yeah, the Chiefs got older. They finished 15th successful points scored the past 2 seasons for galore reasons. Mahomes is not abruptly going backmost to 5,000 passing yards. Rice has off-field issues, and helium might incur a multiple-game suspension this season. Worthy had an uneven rookie season. Brown hasn't done overmuch since 2021. The Chiefs volition tally the football; they volition support well; and, for the 3rd consecutive season, cipher volition scope 1,000 rushing oregon receiving yards.

• Aaron Rodgers wasn't notably bully for the Jets past season, but still, pb wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught 101 passes for 1,104 yards, and in-season summation Davante Adams averaged astir 80 receiving yards per crippled there. Now Rodgers hooks up with erstwhile Seattle Seahawks prima DK Metcalf and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Metcalf looks similar helium should beryllium a WR1, but the numbers haven't been determination and comparing him to Wilson oregon Adams feels similar a reach. Metcalf averaged six TDs per play successful 3 years with competent QB Geno Smith. Is Rodgers truly an upgrade implicit Smith? Metcalf is going successful drafts arsenic a WR2, but this doesn't look similar a amended concern for him successful Pittsburgh.

• Deebo Samuel Sr. and Cooper Kupp are going precocious capable successful drafts that the concern outgo isn't a large deal, but these fellows looked done past play with the 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. Now the Commanders and Seahawks instrumentality their shots. Samuel, his assemblage ever dealing with something, can't spot large measurement successful Washington, and don't number connected anyplace adjacent the emblematic rushing attempts we saw successful the past. Kupp missed 18 games implicit the past 3 seasons. Not each veterans are susceptible of reliable production. The extremity of the enactment is nearing for Samuel and Kupp.

• When it comes to WRs successful drafts this season, it mightiness beryllium champion to debar evident wounded risks similar Samuel and Kupp, and different players radical support talking themselves into. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to cognize seasoned Chris Godwin (ankle) volition not beryllium acceptable for Week 1, oregon adjacent September astatine all, though phantasy managers mightiness not beryllium believing it. Same with the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk (knee). It ever seems to instrumentality longer for players with genu injuries to return. New Orleans Saints prima Chris Olave (concussions) is simply a antithetic matter. I tin spot investing successful 1 compromised WR successful the mediate rounds, but nary much than that.

• I'm not definite it matters which backmost starts for the Colts this season, Richardson oregon Jones. I would worth Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs much with adjacent Aaron Rodgers throwing them the ball, truthful that is saying a lot.

Tight ends

• Mark Andrews led the presumption with 11 touchdown catches past season, and that is awesome. The occupation is, 13 choky ends caught much passes and 19 saw much targets, and those figures are a much reliable gauge for the future. Emerging Ravens teammate Isaiah Likely is younger and not successful a declaration year, and adjacent if helium misses a fewer September games owed to his ft injury, helium volition beryllium a factor. Touchdown regression is simply a existent thing, and the Ravens volition apt chop targets for Andrews, too.

• You cognize those terrific numbers Jonnu Smith achieved past play with the Miami Dolphins? They're not happening with the Steelers. No shot. Pat Freiermuth remains a Steeler, and an effectual one. Aaron Rodgers is the QB. I'm not expecting rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren to beryllium top-10 options, but I would instrumentality the accidental connected them implicit Smith and the oft-injured Dallas Goedert. One tin besides watercourse choky extremity arsenic a tenable strategy.

As you hole your draught board, deliberation astir the close terms for each subordinate (I urge ranking players successful tiers). If you can't get a subordinate astatine your preferred price, retrieve that you don't person to draught him.