Chris Mason: Is this a good day or a bad day for Nigel Farage?

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It is a question prompting at least some debate within the party.

"When he goes down this angry route he doesn't help himself," the prominent Reform activist Tim Montgomerie told Radio 4's The World At One.

Montgomerie, the founder of the ConservativeHome website, defected to Reform two years ago. He praised Farage's political ability but added: "It's very frustrating how he's behaved today. He needs to get a grip of this problem."

Montgomerie argued Farage and Reform were at their best when they were more positive rather than "inward looking" and focused on "grievances."

The "grievances," as Montgomerie puts it, are real and legitimate, say Farage's friends.

In the short term at least and from a point of weakness I have previously written about, the by-election allowed Farage to get on the front foot and to frame an argument, as he saw it, as the people versus those out to get him.

Rubbish, say his critics, the rules apply to all MPs and the undeclared £5m gift from the billionaire businessman Christopher Harborne, in the months before Farage became an MP, should have been registered, they insist.

Talking to GB News in the early hours of this morning, before the result, Farage repeated a concession, of sorts, about this: "If I made one sin, it's that I haven't filled in a piece of paper.

"I've broken no law, I've broken no tax law, I've taken no public money. I don't even own a motor home. Maybe I haven't filled in a piece of paper. I'm confident I'm right - we'll see where we go."

He has long maintained he sought legal advice about whether he needed to declare the money and had been told he didn't.

The wider question is where Nigel Farage and Reform find themselves in the big picture politically and whether their current approach is a wise one.

There is early evidence of something of a Burnham bounce for Labour, which has disrupted Reform's long standing lead in the opinion polls.

And the Conservatives appear more chipper and competitive than a year ago too.

Then there is the rise of Restore Britain, run by the former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.

Let's be clear: none of the political parties are wildly popular at the moment, but Reform's support has shrivelled a bit and their rivals are more upbeat.

The landscape for the new political season at Westminster is taking shape, ahead of MPs returning to the Commons in a few weeks.

Labour with a spring in its step, for now at least. Reform punchy but feeling under the cosh and plenty of the others scrapping for attention too.

It will be a fascinating few months ahead.

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